Today's US Stock Market Summary: The Market is in a Triangle Consolidation, Overall Still Steadily Upward

First, Look at the Overall Performance: S&P Steady, Dow Hits New Highs, Nasdaq Shows Internal Divergence
US stocks rose across the board on Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.72% and the Nasdaq up 1.26%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average again refreshed its all-time high, closing above 53,055 points, indicating that the overall bull market momentum remains ample. Small- and mid-cap stocks (Russell 2000) also edged up, and market breadth is generally improving. Apart from energy and a very few defensive sectors, the entire US stock market showed a broad rally.
Macro Focus: The Only Major Event This Week is the FOMC Minutes
The Fed's June meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday Eastern Time. The meeting itself was a milestone—it was the first appearance for the new Fed Chair. The market is most concerned about whether any committee members discussed the need for earlier rate hikes. Given recent strong macro data, short-end Treasury yields have cooled somewhat, but if the minutes sound hawkish, rate hike expectations for July or September could be repriced. In addition, this week we need to watch the ADP employment data, Thursday's initial jobless claims, as well as Thursday's PepsiCo and Friday's Delta Air Lines earnings. Delta's premium cabins, business travel, and high-end credit card business will be an important window to verify the consumption resilience of high-income groups under the current K-shaped economy.
A relatively positive signal is that while the ISM Services PMI met expectations at 54 (still in expansion), sub-components such as underlying business activity were weaker than expected. This implied economic softness actually alleviated market concerns about rate hikes, raised rate-cut expectations, drove gold up about 1%, and lowered Treasury yields.
Historical Statistics Provide a Fairly Strong Bullish Signal
There's a set of data worth noting: In US stock market history, whenever the S&P 500 rose more than 10% in Q2, the second half of the year recorded a decline only once (1975). On average, the second half usually gains another 12% or so, and Q4 has never declined when this pattern occurs. Fundamentally, the S&P's current forward P/E is even lower than the level at the beginning of 2026. The market expects Q2 corporate earnings to grow 23%-25% year-over-year, with 10 out of 11 sectors achieving growth. This is already the second consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 20%. Against a backdrop where valuations are difficult to expand further, US stocks will mainly rely on earnings to drive the index forward.
Semianalysis Stirring the Pot, AMD Becomes the Focus
Over the weekend, a tech social media account posted multiple tweets claiming that NVIDIA's next-gen flagship architecture Blackwell Ultra/Rubin Ultra racks (especially NVL144) would be delayed by 12 months to 2028 due to the orthogonal backplane PCB technical challenge. This triggered a sell-off in the Asian supply chain. Breaking down the rumor: The problem is not the chip itself, but the high-end PCB orthogonal backplane used to connect GPUs, aiming to replace traditional copper cable solutions with 90-degree board-to-board direct connections (otherwise over 20k cables would be needed, increasing weight by 30% and causing signal attenuation). However, this process is indeed difficult in terms of high-precision stacking and heat dissipation. NVIDIA has officially strongly denied the delay, and even if the worst-case scenario materializes, this process is currently only planned for the most expensive flagship Rubin Ultra, not for the standard racks. What really deserves concern is if a delay is rumored for the standard base version, as that accounts for the bulk of revenue and market share. AMD, riding on this false news and Goldman Sachs' aggressive target price increase from $450 to $640, surged over 10% intraday, ultimately closing up about 6.6%.
Individual Stock Technicals: AMD is Strong
AMD has been extremely impressive recently. Price has repeatedly tested the 20-day moving average but never truly broken below it, indicating the bullish structure remains solid. The strategy remains to buy on dips. However, the weekly level has shown some noteworthy signals, meaning position management needs some adjustment. Long-term positions with low cost basis can be held, but short-term positions should take profits proactively when price rebounds to previous structural highs.
Broadcom Renews Super Long-Term Contract with Apple Through 2031
Broadcom disclosed before the open that it had renewed a long-term cooperation agreement with Apple through 2031. On the news, Broadcom closed up about 3.73%. The scope of this renewal has been comprehensively upgraded from traditional 5G RF, WiFi/Bluetooth to covering a full range of custom ASICs for multiple generations of Apple consumer devices and cloud AI inference hardware. Considering that Apple has already integrated WiFi, Bluetooth, and modems with its own chips on the mobile side, it makes sense that the renewal is no longer limited to network connectivity. There are reports that Apple is developing a dedicated AI server chip for the M5 Ultra, planning to deploy its own AI servers by 2027. Broadcom's core task may be to help Apple with custom ASIC technology for efficient interconnection of multiple M-series chips, or purely a central AI accelerator.
The most critical significance of this long-term contract is that it hedges a key bearish logic previously held by the market on Broadcom. Apple's self-developed wireless chips could cost Broadcom nearly $7.1 billion in annual operating revenue. This cross-cycle long-term contract locks in Broadcom's traditional business base until 2031. Moreover, the gross margin of custom AI chips (approximately 45%-60%) is much higher than RF chips (30%-38%). Combined with the Google TPU long-term contract and the counter-cyclical nature of the VMware software business, this will significantly raise Broadcom's overall gross margin center. TSMC, ASE Technology, Amkor, and other packaging/test foundries, as well as optical module manufacturers, will also indirectly benefit from this long-term contract.
Storage Sector Special Topic: SK Hynix IPO, Capital Battle Before and After ADR, and My Reassessment of the Mid-Term Rhythm for Storage
The recent two-day movement in storage is worth a separate mention. SNDK printed a large bearish candle last week, breaking below the 20-day moving average, and failed to reclaim it today. This can be considered an effective breakdown. Next, it will likely fall to the 50-day moving average (around 1650) before gaining bounce momentum. The bounce will probably retest the 20-day moving average (around 1920) and then decline again. Micron's logic is basically consistent with SNDK; its next moves can be viewed in the same rhythm—first testing support at the moving average, then bouncing to the 20-day moving average area where it faces resistance, then possibly a double bottom.
It is important to highlight the impact of SK Hynix's IPO on short-term capital flows. Hynix's listing on the Nasdaq raises approximately $28 billion, making it the third-largest IPO in global history (after SpaceX and Saudi Aramco) and the largest foreign IPO in the US. From a valuation perspective, compared to Micron's current forward P/E of about 6x, Hynix's forward P/E is around 8.3x. It fills the scarcity of pure HBM plays in the US stock market. Even more noteworthy is the national support behind it. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung demanded full efforts to advance the large-chip project. The government plans to establish a future response fund of up to 100 trillion Korean won, directing extra tax revenue from industry prosperity into semiconductors, AI data centers, and similar fields. The proceeds will also be entirely invested in semiconductor equipment purchases, further locking in the certainty of long-term orders for upstream equipment manufacturers like ASML and Applied Materials.
Following the old adage "buy the rumor, sell the news," before Hynix's listing, it will likely continue to drain capital from US storage plays like Micron and SNDK. Funds will pre-position for Hynix's listing expectations, and institutions may also start distributing their Micron and SNDK positions early. After Hynix officially lists, the capital that was drawn away is more likely to flow back into Micron and SNDK. Overall, the relay capital is still relatively ample; short-term fluctuations are merely due to portfolio rebalancing. So my suggestion is not to easily cut losses on SNDK around 1600 in the short term. A more reasonable approach is to wait for a bounce back to test the 20-day moving average (around 1920) before considering an exit. Similarly, when it falls to key moving average support, it's also not suitable to cut losses or short, because a bounce is likely near the key moving average. Then consider whether a double bottom occurs. It is not recommended to blindly chase long positions when the bounce reaches the moving average area.
As for the overall mid-term expectation of the storage sector, I have also made some adjustments in the past couple of days. After Micron broke below the 20-day moving average, its trend shifted from a strong one-sided rally to a high-level consolidation pattern. However, I personally believe the downside space is not actually large. Currently, Micron's forward P/E is only about 6x, which is quite cheap in terms of valuation. I tend to think it will likely consolidate at high levels in the 800-1200 range. By year-end or the first half of 2027, highs could still see around 2000. Friends holding the stock can calm down and not be scared by short-term moving average breakdowns. One more data point worth referencing: the market currently expects Micron's earnings per share (EPS) for the fiscal period ending August 2027 to be around 124 at the high end. Capital markets usually price in such expectations about half a year in advance. Following this logic, I estimate that the true peak of this storage cycle may appear around the first quarter of 2027. The current level is far from the top. Everyone should not panic excessively due to the recent pullback.
Trump Rings the Bell and Markets
On Monday, Trump rang the bell for both the NYSE and Nasdaq from the White House Oval Office, loudly declaring that US stocks would see a new round of surge, and launched the "Trump Account," a tax-advantaged investment account for American children under 18. Newborns from 2025 to 2028 will receive a $1,000 starter fund from the Treasury, and subsequently up to $5,000 can be deposited annually for regular investment in US stock indexes. This week, it is also planned to invest over $800 million in US stocks on behalf of American children. At the launch ceremony, several giants received public shout-outs from Trump for large donations: the Dell Foundation donated $6.25 billion, Dell's boss attended in person, and Trump promoted Dell, causing the stock to surge over 8% intraday. Micron Technology donated $250 million and was also publicly praised by Trump. Though its short-term trend is weak, combined with the valuation and long-term logic mentioned earlier, buying on dips for the long term is a very good choice. Trump himself also publicly touted Dell on Twitter, while also mentioning that the US is taking over cryptocurrency, claiming to be a big crypto fan. The White House also announced it is advancing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
There's Also a Reversal in the Crypto Space
MicroStrategy sold nearly 3,600 bitcoins (about $216 million) between June 29 and July 5, which caused Bitcoin to dip below $62k intraday. However, this was more for paying preferred stock dividends, not a panic sell or loss of confidence. The company still holds 843k bitcoins. Subsequently, Trump publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies, and coupled with the news of a "national strategic Bitcoin reserve," Bitcoin erased its intraday loss and bounced back to around $64k.
The bounce's highest target is around 68,000. When it reaches there, do not chase long. Crypto is still in a bear market. It will likely go up and down to hunt both long and short liquidity and clear leverage. Once leverage is cleared and the ship is light, it can rally.
Summary
The core contradiction in today's market is that the technicals of the S&P and Dow are relatively healthy—they have already recovered gaps and even hit new highs—but the Nasdaq remains stuck below a key island reversal gap and is in a daily-level consolidation pattern. The lackluster rally indicates that bulls still lack true confirmation. My personal judgment is that in July, the Nasdaq will likely first fake a breakout and then pull back, while the S&P will likely be stronger and hit new highs first.
The storage line will be affected in the short term by capital draining and reflow around Hynix's listing, but from a valuation and long-term earnings expectation perspective, it is far from the top of this storage cycle. Friends holding the stock can calm down and not panic-sell or blindly short due to short-term moving average breakdowns.
Whether it's historical seasonal statistics, earnings growth expectations, or inflation cooling from softer oil prices, they all provide solid support for the second half of the year. The valuation divergence within the semiconductor sector also indicates that this correction is more of a structural reshuffling than an overall bearish turn. In the short term, pay more attention to the real direction of institutional capital flows and sector rotation rhythm. Long-term positions can continue to be held according to the original logic, and don't be disrupted by the tugs and pulls of the past few days.