US warns: Russia plans to launch military action against Poland to test NATO's collective defense resolve.

The British Daily Telegraph, citing U.S. intelligence, reports that Russia is planning armed actions in Poland to test NATO’s resolve. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also warned that the situation in the coming months “could indeed be very critical.”
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• Multiple intelligence sources issue cross-warnings
• Russia’s false-flag operation within the next two years is not ruled out
• Will Bitcoin become a safe-haven asset?

The British Daily Telegraph, citing U.S. intelligence, reports that Moscow is planning armed actions in Poland, testing the limits of NATO’s collective defense. Poland’s power grid, oil pipelines, and other critical infrastructure could be hit by missiles or drones. Russia may even deploy troops into this NATO member state to pressure Western allies that continue to support Ukraine.

Multiple intelligence sources issue cross-warnings

When the BBC interviewed Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, he admitted: “I don’t intend to scare anyone, but due to the changing nature of war, the next few months could indeed be very critical.”

He specifically pointed out that concerns among the Baltic states are rising. Polish media Onet, citing insiders close to the president, revealed that the U.S. has issued multiple warnings to Warsaw authorities about a plot to attack Poland.

According to the intelligence, the methods Russia may adopt include: attacking key infrastructure such as power plants with drones; launching false airstrikes to force Poland to activate its air defense system; launching hybrid warfare or conventional military attacks at the border (with Russian troops or Belarusian troops involved); and even disguising an invasion as a “GPS malfunction” incident or a “rescue mission” as cover. So far, neither the U.S. White House nor the State Department has publicly responded.

Russia’s false-flag operation within the next two years is not ruled out

This is not the first warning. As early as April this year, the Financial Times reported that Russia might launch attacks against NATO member countries “within months.” At the end of June, when CBS interviewed Polish Deputy Prime Minister Radek Sikorski, he also did not rule out Russia carrying out a “false-flag operation” within the next two years as a pretext for attacking NATO countries.

Under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, an armed attack against any member state is considered an attack against all member states, and countries must defend one another collectively—this is precisely where the risk would be most concentrated if Russia truly tests NATO’s resolve.

Polish President Andrzej Duda is expected to travel to Turkey next week to attend the NATO summit. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the summit will show that European countries are taking seriously Trump’s call to increase defense spending, and leaders are expected to pledge continued funding for supplying Ukraine with weapons.

Will Bitcoin become a safe-haven asset?

If geopolitical risk really erupts again, will Bitcoin once more display the value of a safe-haven asset? If we look at historical data, the short-term outlook is probably not optimistic.

In 2026, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has risen to about 0.75, meaning that when tech stocks plunge, Bitcoin often falls in tandem rather than playing a safe-haven role. The precedent from this February is the clearest confirmation: after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian targets, Bitcoin tumbled 4% to 8% within a few hours, moving in sync with the tech stocks’ collapse.

Even if, in the long run, investors position Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical conflict risk, long-term narratives and short-term reactions are two different things. If Russia truly launches military action in Poland and triggers an Article 5 crisis in NATO, Bitcoin in the short term could still face massive volatility rather than seeing a safe-haven rally.