Brother Xing Says Crypto 0707 BTC Today's Thoughts

Combining the latest ETF real data and Trump's policy support, move the entry points lower to catch the dip at deeper levels.

Entry points: 63300 - 63500

Stop loss: 63000

Take profit targets:
First target: 64200
Second target: 65000

News and Sentiment

ETF panic sell-off is over, funds are bottoming:

Brother Xing checked the latest data: In June, BTC ETF had a monthly outflow of $4.06B, a record high, with 13 consecutive days of large redemptions selling off. But! The latest data in early July shows that the daily outflow has narrowed sharply to $220 million. BlackRock's IBIT outflow is significantly lower than the June daily average, and Grayscale GBTC selling pressure continues to weaken.

Truth: The most panicked "institutional exodus" is over. Now it's the bottoming phase with exhausted selling pressure. If it can't go down, it will go up!

Trump's "Strategic Reserve" big move supports the bottom:

Trump not only signed an executive order to establish a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" but also included BTC, ETH, etc. into the national reserve framework and promised to push for a digital asset bill. This is no longer a simple "pump call" but a national-level endorsement! Big money is using the favorable news to wash out weak hands and accumulate. In the long run, this is definitely a super bottom.

Geopolitical and macro sentiment game:

The global geopolitical situation is still in play, and risk aversion ebbs and flows. But the Fed's rate cut expectations support the bottom, macro liquidity is ample, and the consensus of BTC as "digital gold" is growing stronger. Deep dips - no one dares to catch the falling knife; dips are just giving away money.

Why give these entry points today?

Heavy selling pressure above 64000, don't be stubborn:

Why did we lose money yesterday? Because 64000-64500 is the previous dense trapped area, coupled with the panic from June ETF outflows still lingering. The main force won't directly pump it; they must first push it down a bit to wash out yesterday's bottom fishers. Today, we avoid the edge and wait for them to finish washing before entering.

63300-63500 is a "golden pit" + strong support:

From a technical perspective, 62500 is the 200-day moving average + miner capitulation threshold, and 63300-63500 is exactly the institutional cost defense zone near this lifeline. If the main force wants to continue pushing up, they will definitely give one last boarding opportunity here. We wait in this pit; the risk-reward ratio is extremely high. If we catch it, we profit.

Stop loss at 63000 is the bottom line, reasonable space:

If even the 63000 integer level and strong support are broken, it means ETF selling pressure continues or a black swan macro event has occurred. Then we must admit our mistake and exit. Using a 300-500 point stop loss to aim for an 800-1500 point take profit - that's mature trading!
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