Can the rebound driven by positive employment data be sustained?

Last week’s employment report gave the market a chance to catch its breath: the U.S. June employment data came in below expectations, with only 57,000 new jobs added—less than half of what was expected.

The labor force participation rate slipped to 61.5%, with about 720,000 people leaving the labor market. While the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.2%, the reason behind it is that the number of employed fell by 507,000.

Overall, this was an employment report that cooled gradually rather than collapsing—just as BlackRock’s head of fixed income described it: “This is a dud, not a firework.”

After the data was released, the market quickly scaled back its bets on a Fed rate hike. The probability of a September rate hike fell to around 45%. The U.S. dollar logged its biggest weekly drop since early April, and U.S. Treasury yields retreated. With macro pressure easing, a rebound window opened for risk assets.

Bitcoin spot ETFs led the way, ending a streak of 10 consecutive days of net outflows. On a single day, they recorded net inflows of $220 million, the highest since May.

BTC surged rapidly from its near 21-month low below $58,000, reclaiming above $63,000. However, cumulative net outflows from ETFs since early May are still close to $8.5 billion. This one-day inflow only partially offsets selling pressure and is far from a trend reversal.

The options market remained cautious as well. On Deribit, Bitcoin put options still trade at a premium relative to call options, with the one-week 25-delta skew at about 16%. Although this is clearly narrower than the prior 25%, indicating that panic has eased, the existence of the premium itself suggests that hedging demand remains, with capital ready to respond to another downturn at any time.

More importantly, Laevitas data shows that the large Bitcoin options portfolio expiring on July 17 is structured with long positions in the $64,000–$70,000 range and short positions in the $66,000–$68,000 range, and the maximum profit zone falls at $66,000–$68,000.

This means the range is becoming a short-term “soft ceiling.” Once the price approaches it, it will face strong sell pressure, limiting the room for any rebound before a breakout. Meanwhile, $60,000 is still viewed as an important dividing line for gauging the strength of the rebound.

And last Friday happened to be a U.S. stock market holiday, so traditional confirmation channels such as ETF trading volume and futures order books were absent. With liquidity thin, price volatility is easier to amplify, giving the options structure mentioned above greater say over short-term market direction.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s daily chart is still in a corrective structure at a larger timeframe. Although the current price has rebounded from the $60,000 support level, it remains far below the key resistance zone of $72,000–$74,000.

If, going forward, BTC can continue to close above $66,000 and is accompanied by supportive trading volume, while ETF outflows decrease, market sentiment could shift—paving the way for a more sustained recovery.

On-chain data also sends a warning: Bitcoin’s current price is running below the average cost basis of 1- to 3-month holders, at roughly $75,000. This means that many investors who entered recently are still sitting on unrealized losses. If the rebound stalls, the potential selling pressure from this group could weigh on market sentiment.

So, for now, the rebound triggered by last week’s employment data looks more like a correction fueled by a macro tailwind than a reversal signal.

In the coming days, whether ETFs can sustain net inflows, whether $66,000 can be broken with increased volume, and whether the options hedging premiums can further fade are key to judging the rebound. Until then, the market remains in an uncertain state.