7.7 Gold Strategy Morning Comment: Gold Price Rallies and Falls, Retests Support, 4140 Level Faces Key Test

Yesterday, gold experienced a three-stage pattern of "surge and plunge - oversold rebound - late session decline." The price dropped sharply from the 4202 high, touching a low of 4128.52 during the session, followed by a technical rebound repair, then weakened again in the late session. It is currently trading near the 4140 level, with short-term bullish-bearish contention heating up.

From a fundamental perspective, the continued strength of the U.S. Dollar Index, coupled with the rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, are the core factors suppressing gold prices. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut this year have cooled again, with capital continuously flowing back into dollar assets, significantly reducing gold's safe-haven appeal. Combined with the lack of new flashpoints in recent geopolitical tensions, safe-haven buying support has marginally weakened, putting overall downward pressure on gold prices.

From a technical perspective, on the 15-minute chart, the price is trading below short-term moving averages, remaining within a downward channel. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, indicating a bearish trend advantage. The price is currently testing the previous support level of 4140. If it breaks below effectively, it will further test the previous low of 4128. Above, the rebound resistance lies in the 4160-4170 range. The MACD green bars are expanding again, suggesting ample short-term bearish momentum.

Trading reference: Sell in batches on rebounds within the 4150-4170 range, targeting 4130, 4100, and 4070.