Breaking! The world’s largest Bitcoin holder “turns traitor” and sells coins—$BTC’s fate hangs in the balance!

Let's talk about something serious. You may all know that there is a company called Strategy, which holds 4% of the global $BTC—843,775 coins. What does this number mean? It's more than the reserves of most central banks. It once set the strongest flag: never sell Bitcoin. This is its faith and the foundation of its business model.

But on July 6th, this company contradicted itself. It disclosed that between June 29th and July 5th, it sold 3,588 $BTC in one go, cashing out $216 million. Note that this is not a small-scale test; it is the largest sell-off in its history. As soon as the news broke, MSTR's stock price fell over 5%, and $BTC dropped to $61.8k—already below its average holding cost of $75.7k.

What's even more chilling is its motive. This sale was not for bottom-fishing or portfolio rebalancing, but to pay preferred stock dividends. In other words, it used Bitcoin as an ATM. Market analyst Zach Pandl crunched the numbers: Strategy spends as much as $1.5 billion annually on preferred stock dividends alone, and its software business cash flow simply cannot cover that. With $2.55 billion in cash reserves, at the current burn rate, it can survive for another 17 months—but this hasn't even accounted for a further decline in Bitcoin's price.

You might think that 3,588 coins out of 840k is just a drop in the bucket. But the shift in logic is far more dangerous than the numbers themselves. At the end of May, it only sold 32 $BTC, cashing out a symbolic $2.5 million, and emphasized that it was "not a strategic shift." Yet a month later, the sale volume increased 100 times. Moreover, the board has officially authorized: in the future, it can sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to buy back stocks and pay dividends. At an official level, the philosophy of "holding Bitcoin to the death" has become a worthless piece of paper.

What's truly deadly is the metric that underpins its entire arbitrage model—mNAV. Strategy invented this number itself: the company's enterprise value divided by the value of its Bitcoin holdings. In the past, mNAV was consistently above 1, and when the stock premium was high, it could even reach 2 or 3 times, allowing it to use high-valued stock as currency to acquire more Bitcoin, like a snowball effect. But now? MSTR's stock price has fallen 75% in a year, and last month mNAV briefly dropped below 1. This means that the market's valuation of this company is already lower than the book value of its Bitcoin holdings.

More ironically, this mNAV itself is inflated. The Wall Street Journal's analysis points out that when calculating enterprise value, Strategy uses the principal of debt and the face value of preferred stock, rather than market prices. However, the actual trading prices of the company's bonds and preferred stocks are already at a significant discount—bonds at 93% of face value, preferred stocks at an average of 72% of face value. If calculated at market prices, the real mNAV is only 0.89, not the official 0.99. As of last Thursday's close, the official website showed 1.09, but the market-based calculation is only 1.04, with the premium almost zero.

Once mNAV stays at a discount, Strategy will have to sell Bitcoin to buy back its own securities for arbitrage. But it is the largest whale in the market, and any large sale will crush $BTC. On June 29th, it did one thing: raised the dividend rate of its largest preferred stock, STRC, to 12%, aiming to stabilize the preferred stock price. This reveals its real concern—it's afraid of a preferred stock crash, and this is far more honest than the paper numbers of mNAV.

Now the situation is like walking a tightrope. A player holding 4% of the global supply has started quietly cashing out, and still has a $1.25 billion sell authorization left. The price of $BTC has already been pushed below the average cost by itself. If the market continues to value it at a discount, once the cash runs out, it will have no choice but to dump Bitcoin on a large scale. No one knows how much time is left on this countdown.

Follow me for more real-time crypto market analysis and insights! $BTC $ETH $SOL

#GT二季度销毁257万枚 #Predict World Cup Portugal vs Spain #VitalikOutlinesStreamlinedEthereumRoadmap