Sharp drop followed by a weak rebound! Keep the 4100 lifeline, and aim for 4190!

After gold surged to 4220 at the end of Friday’s session, it met resistance and fell back. In today’s Asian session, it has been consolidating and drifting lower; after the low briefly touched 4105, it bottomed out and rebounded, and is currently trading around 4168. Overall, it is showing a choppy pattern of “rally then pullback, dip then bounce.” The long-short battle has intensified, and 4100–4105 is an important defensive line for short-term bulls. This zone is a support area where the prior consolidation base and a psychological level resonate. Once it is broken, it will open downside room toward the 4070–4030 range.

Bearish signals on the technical side still dominate: the TRIX trend indicator continues to form a dead cross and move lower, indicating that the medium-term downtrend has not yet been reversed. After the MACD fast and slow lines form a golden cross while below the 0 axis, the momentum is insufficient; the red histogram shows a shrinking-volume pattern, leaving the sustainability of bullish momentum in doubt and limiting upside potential. The RSI has rebounded to around 48, but has not yet broken above the 50 midpoint level, suggesting the market’s buying strength is limited. Still, 4105 support remains effective, and in the short term there is a need for technical correction. The middle Bollinger Band near 4155 forms support, while the upper band at 4195 is the first short-term resistance level.

Prudent positioning: short on rebounds in the 4185–4205 range and the 4290–4310 range, with targets at 4160–4140. If the 4100 level is unexpectedly broken to the downside, follow through and chase the short; set a stop loss at 4120 and target the 4070–4050 range. Pay close attention to support around the 4000 level.
$BTC