BTC Market Analysis and Practical Trading Strategy – 7.7

I. Overall Market Assessment

Cycle Structure
The 4-hour medium-to-long-term moving averages remain in a bullish alignment, and the broader uptrend foundation is not fully broken; after price peaked at 63961 and then continuously declined, upward momentum has clearly weakened. Currently, the market is in a narrow high-level consolidation with no sustained trend momentum in either direction.

Key Range Adjustment
1-hour short-term box: Lower support 61198, upper resistance 64051; current price 62323, located slightly below the midpoint of the range.
Medium-term global box: Strong support 59388, secondary resistance 64219.

Indicator Status
K-line highs are gradually declining, with selling volume increasing on drops and decreasing on rebounds, indicating stronger short-term selling pressure; the MACD histogram has narrowed significantly, with the fast and slow lines turning downward, enhancing short-term bearish momentum; RSI at 50.47 is in the neutral zone, showing a clear consolidation pattern.

Overall Conclusion: The medium-to-long-term bullish undertone remains, but short-term bearish intent dominates. Strictly rely on the top and bottom of the box for high selling and low buying; avoid opening heavy positions in the middle of the range.

II. Entry Points and Risk Control by Direction

(A) Short-side Strategy (Priority Short-term)

Standard Resistance Short (High Risk-Reward Ratio)
Entry Range: 63900 ~ 64051 (1-hour box upper resistance zone)
Stop Loss: 64600 – if price firmly holds above resistance, the rebound continues and the short thesis invalidates
Take-Profit in Stages: 63000 → 62300 → 61198 (box lower rail), extreme target 59388

Light Short at Current Price
Entry: 62300~62380
Stop Loss: 62900
Take-Profit: 61700, 61200

Note: The risk-reward ratio near the middle of the range is low. Only trade with minimal position size for short-term speculation; no heavy positions.

(B) Long-side Strategy (Only Support Rebound, No Bottom-fishing at Current Price)

Standard Support Long
Entry Range: 61180 ~ 61280 (1-hour box lower core support)
Stop Loss: 60800 – if support breaks, downside space opens
Take-Profit: 62300, 64000

Extreme Deep-Discount Long
Entry Range: 59380 ~ 59500 (Medium-term strong support)
Stop Loss: 58900
Take-Profit: 61200, 64000

Hard Rule: All longs are only for short-term repair rebounds; exit all positions upon touching the upper resistance; do not hold for long-term bullish positions.

III. Box Breakout Response

Breakout with Volume Above 64051: 1-hour box breaks upward, short-term rebound restarts, close all short positions, wait for a pullback to support before going long again; do not chase price up.

Effective Break Below 61198: Short-term support lost, consolidation turns to downtrend, follow the trend to add short positions, downside targets 60000, 59388.

IV. Practical Risk Control Rules

Position Sizing: Short-term selling pressure is stronger; allocate more to short positions than longs – ratio 7:3 short to long. Total position in one direction should not exceed 10% of account.

Leverage Limit: High-level consolidation with frequent wicks – keep leverage within 20x to avoid large drawdowns from sharp volatility.

Entry Requirement: Avoid heavy positions in the 61800–63800 middle zone; wait for entries at the top and bottom of the box to ensure a risk-reward ratio >1.5.

Position Discipline: All orders must carry a stop loss; do not hold losing positions. Take partial profits at profit targets; do not gamble on full trending moves.

Market Note: The large-cycle moving average bullish structure remains, but short-term bearish momentum is stronger. Trade entirely with a range-bound consolidation mindset; do not predict unilateral big moves up or down.