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The news this week mainly revolves around Wednesday
FOMC meeting minutes (July 8, Wednesday)
$BTC $XAUT
New Fed Chair Warsh presided over his first rate-setting meeting in June:
• Interest rates remain unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%
• Hawkish rhetoric: "Inflation is still too high"
• Dot plot raised: year-end 2026 rate forecast from 3.4% to 3.8%
• 9 committee members support a rate hike this year
• Market now fully prices in an October rate hike
Translation into plain English:
Employment is worsening, but the Fed says it is still considering rate hikes.
This is called "stagflation" — weak economy + high inflation + continued monetary tightening.
This is the most unfriendly combination for risk assets.
Wednesday's meeting minutes will tell us just how hawkish Warsh is. If the minutes are more hawkish than expected — the dollar strengthens, BTC/gold under pressure. If the minutes are neutral — markets breathe a sigh of relief, opportunity for a rebound.
Currently, BTC in the big cycle cannot hold above 64000 in the short term, and before strong resistance at 68000, crypto remains weak. Range trading around the 58000-63000 area, primarily buy low and sell high. Gold cannot break above 4200, continuing bearish, but if 4120/4100 is not broken and holds, bulls still have a chance. If broken, continue to look short to 4050/4000.