Today BTC is hovering around $62.8k, and for the first time, I've started to feel that the real test for the bulls isn't the upward move, but whether they can hold the line.

This morning I sat down to watch the market, and instead of looking at the K-line first, I put together ETF fund flows, on-chain activity, and the order book.

Because over the past few days, something interesting has happened in the market.

The price has started to recover, but the market hasn't become FOMO again.

This is completely different from the previous rebounds this year.

BTC has now returned to around $62.8k. This rebound has been mainly driven by ETF fund flows turning back to net inflows, combined with short-covering from earlier, which pushed the price to quickly reclaim the $60k integer level.

But today, the order book made me notice a detail.

The closer it gets to $63k, the fewer funds are actively chasing the price.

What does this mean?

It's not that no one is bullish.

Rather, those who dared to buy the dip a few days ago are now making money; and those who are only now preparing to chase in are facing a different risk-reward ratio.

Many people think trading is all about predicting direction.

I increasingly feel that direction and position are two entirely different things.

You can still be bullish on direction.

But the position may not be worth chasing.

Today, the easiest mistake the market can make is to see ETF inflows resuming and automatically assume institutions have fully returned.

I don't think so.

One day of fund inflows only proves sentiment is recovering; only a continuous week of inflows proves the trend is recovering.

So I didn't rush to increase my position today.

It's not because I'm scared.

It's because I haven't yet seen a second wave of funds stepping in.

There's another detail worth noting.

Recently, on-chain active addresses have started to pick up noticeably, indicating that funds that had been dormant for a while are re-entering the market. But increased activity does not equal large-scale new capital influx; it's more like telling us: the market is starting to see trading again, not that it has entered the main uptrend.

I'm betting on a scenario for tonight's European and US session.

If BTC can break and hold above $63k with volume, and US session volume continues to expand, I will consider this rebound transitioning from "sentiment repair" to "trend repair." The next step would be the market attempting to challenge higher resistance levels.

But if the price spikes tonight without follow-through volume and drops back to around $62k, then I'll see this as merely digesting the profits from the past few days, and the bulls still need time.

Today my trading plan is simple.

No chasing.

If it continues to rise, I accept making a bit less; if there's a pullback, I'll be more interested in reassessing entry opportunities.

As I continue trading, I increasingly believe one thing.

Those who truly make money don't compete on who predicts the most accurately, but on who can position the heaviest when the opportunity is best.
$BTC ‌#比特币巨鲸两周狂扫27万枚BTC