Egrag Crypto Says XRP's Monthly Oscillator Manipulation Is Ending. Here's the Meaning

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After months of mixed price action, attention is shifting from XRP’s price to the underlying momentum indicators that could shape its next major move.

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto believes the asset’s monthly oscillator has reached a decisive point, explaining on X that what many traders interpret as a bearish breakdown may instead mark the conclusion of a prolonged manipulation phase and the beginning of a broader bullish reversal.

According to Egrag, the latest movement should not be viewed as a routine bounce in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or a standard oscillator recovery. Instead, he characterized it as a broader macro momentum development that may determine XRP’s next major trend over the coming months.

A Deeper Move Than Previous Cycles

The analyst explained that the monthly oscillator recently dropped into the 40 region, an area he considers a historically important weakness zone for XRP. He noted that in earlier market cycles, the asset formed a recognizable one-two-three bottoming structure within this range before beginning a sustained recovery.

However, Egrag emphasized that the current cycle broke from that historical pattern by falling below the structure that had remained intact since XRP’s early trading history. While many traders could interpret such a move as a bearish signal, he argued that the breakdown may instead represent what he called a “macro deviation.”

In his view, the move below the long-standing support structure resembles a false breakdown designed to shake out market participants before a stronger recovery begins. He described this phase as market manipulation rather than a genuine deterioration in long-term momentum.

Applying the AMD Model to the Oscillator

Egrag also introduced his interpretation of the Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution (AMD) model. While the framework is commonly used to analyze price action, he suggested it can also apply to momentum oscillators, particularly on higher time frames.

He explained that the red zone shown on his chart represented the expected accumulation and bottoming area. Instead of remaining within that region, the oscillator briefly moved below it, which he identified as the manipulation stage. According to the analyst, the current rebound from approximately 40 toward 42.50 could signal the beginning of the upside distribution phase.

The accompanying chart highlights similar historical patterns in past XRP cycles while showing the current oscillator attempting to recover after the recent decline.

Key Levels Could Determine the Next Phase

Looking ahead, Egrag outlined several monthly oscillator levels that he believes traders should monitor closely. He identified 43.66 as the first important recovery level, followed by 46.50, which he described as a strong bullish signal. A move above the 50 level would serve as macro confirmation that momentum has shifted decisively in XRP’s favor.

Beyond those milestones, the analyst pointed to an eventual momentum target of 80 on the oscillator if the recovery continues.

Summarizing his outlook, Egrag maintained that the oscillator has already touched the critical 40 level and has begun rebounding. Although the long-standing structure was broken, he believes that the break may have represented the manipulation phase rather than a lasting bearish development.

If XRP reclaims 43.66, advances beyond 46.50, and ultimately secures a monthly close above 50, he believes the monthly oscillator would indicate that a larger macro move is underway.

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