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World Gold Council: Gold Prices May Trade Around $4,100 This Year Under Base Case Scenario

AirdropBlackHole
On July 1, the World Gold Council released its "Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market 2026," projecting that gold will continue to serve as a barometer for the global macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year, with three possible scenarios. From the current price levels, gold prices are generally in line with market consensus: the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates at least once in 2026, likely in October; the Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and European Central Bank are all expected to tighten policies; and the U.S. inflation rate for the second quarter is projected to peak near 3.9%. If there are no significant changes in the aforementioned environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100 per ounce this year, with a fluctuation range of approximately ±5%. If geopolitical or economic conditions worsen, or if interest rate expectations shift, gold may regain upward momentum; however, only a sufficiently strong signal of a global economic slowdown could push gold prices to break upward. On the downside, a stronger dollar, interest rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a resurgence in market risk appetite are the main obstacles facing gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000 per ounce, it could trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices drop more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger "buying on dips" demand from long-term investors in multiple regions.
XAU-0.66%
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