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Analysis: Bitcoin's 365-day Sharpe ratio has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, which has historically corresponded to bear market bottoms multiple times.

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On July 6, according to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 28% year-to-date, and its 365-day rolling Sharpe Ratio once dropped to around -21, the lowest level since late 2022, and is still near -20. The Sharpe Ratio measures an asset's risk-adjusted return performance. A negative value means that investors have taken on higher volatility risk, but actual returns are lower than risk-free assets (such as 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds). Against the current backdrop of approximately 4.45% U.S. Treasury yields, this indicator reflects a significant deterioration in Bitcoin's risk-return performance over the past year. However, CryptoQuant points out that historically, when the Sharpe Ratio falls to such extreme negative levels, it often indicates that market selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Similar levels occurred near the bottoms of bear markets in 2015, 2019, and 2022, each time followed by a new upward cycle for Bitcoin.
BTC1.82%
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