$BTC BTC arrived at 64,000 as expected. I really didn’t think it would just go up without a pullback—this time I miscalculated.

The day before yesterday, I posted that BTC was still in an uptrend, and the next target was 64,000. The result is that my 64,000 target was reached, but the pullback I mentioned did not happen. This is something I didn’t anticipate. The main force really knows how to stir things up—choosing the three-day holiday and using a small amount of capital to pull the market up. Now let’s get back to the chart and see what’s going on.
For this particular rally, I don’t feel at ease. The reason is that this rally was pushed during the holiday. During holidays, it only takes a small amount of capital to push the price higher. Even from the daily chart, we can see that the rallies are on shrinking volume, and the entire upward move is driven by futures/contracts. That means there are a large number of short positions getting stopped out and liquidated here, which also accelerates the upward move. Generally speaking, rallies on shrinking volume easily lure longs in or trigger a pullback. So I’m not comfortable with this upswing. A pullback from 64,000 here is nothing unusual—but then where would it pull back to?
Actually, from the weekly chart, BTC is still doing reasonably well, and the overall long-side structure remains intact. So for the pullback, the first level to watch is around 62,000. This is a support–resistance swap zone, and there should be some rebound in this area as well. Next, we still need to pay attention to the area around 60,800 that I told everyone about a few days ago. There is a lot of liquidity here—if it’s possible to hunt it, that would be a good choice. Finally, this is the last level, which I’ve always been watching, and it’s also the “extreme” level in my view—the level that most people believe is impossible to reach. But I’ve kept watching it. Why have I kept focusing on this spot? Because this round of rebound happened over the weekend and was contract-driven. What I’m worried about is that this could be an extreme stop-run to lure longs. If it’s an extreme lure, it could lead to an extreme retracement. And the area with the richest liquidity is around 59,500. That’s why I’ve been hoping to come back to 59,500 and then go back up. To be honest, when the price was at 62,000, I already thought a retrace down to 59,500 before rising again would be more reasonable. Of course, now the price is already around 64,000—pulling back 4,500 points would generally be an extreme move. If it can happen, then you could set up medium- to long-term positions, with a target around 67,000.

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