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At 6:00, the world went eerily silent.
Global markets opened “silently” on Monday:
- Gold and the U.S. dollar index rose slightly in tandem at the open;
- U.S. stock futures slipped quickly after a rise, then regained their losses;
- Oil prices fell on opening momentum;
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged up to 4.487.
Monday is very likely a “recalibration day.” The market needs to decide again: Does weak non-farm signal a more accommodating Federal Reserve, or a more fragile U.S. economy?
First, gold and the dollar rising in sync suggests the market is not trading on a single logic. Especially the latter—this indicates dollar bears don’t dare to press too aggressively, and the market is not yet willing to confirm that the Federal Reserve has fully turned dovish.
Second, for U.S. stocks, what to watch today is style—not just whether the index is up or down. If tonight the Dow is relatively strong while the Nasdaq is weak, and defensive sectors rally, it means the market has officially shifted—from “trading liquidity” to “trading earnings quality.”
Third, the core of today’s market is not direction, but divergence:
- U.S. dollar: Waiting for the next data, unwilling to turn fully weak;
- U.S. stocks: Moving from rate-hike cooling to earnings concerns;
- Crude oil: Demand worries outweigh weakness in the dollar;
- Treasuries (U.S. government bonds): Inflation and fiscal pressures remain, and yields are not willing to fall.
Fourth, what truly determines the outcome today is the U.S. ISM Services PMI released later this evening. If the ISM Services PMI remains strong, the market may see weak non-farm as merely a localized disturbance, and the dollar could rebound. If the ISM Services PMI clearly weakens, the market will conclude that the slowdown in employment is not a coincidence—keeping pressure on the dollar and benefiting gold. Of course, what is truly worth watching is not whether tonight’s ISM is good or bad, but how the market reacts to “bad news.”
The real big test this week is not today—it’s Thursday and Friday.