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Q4 cycle low + death cross still present, don't get carried away with short-term bounce, wait for a breakout above 67K before discussing trend reversal.
Bitcoin jumped +7% this week and reclaimed the 200-week moving average, a positive sign after briefly falling below it.
Bullish factors:
- Reclaimed the 200-week MA
- Bullish RSI divergence is forming
- US economy remains strong
- ISM near 54 (4-year high) + Russell 2000 at all-time highs
- Lower geopolitical risk as US-Iran peace talks progress
Bearish factors:
- 4 year cycle suggests new low in Q4
- Still below the 20-week and 50-week MAs
- Weekly Death Cross is still active
Key Levels to watch:
Support: $58K
Resistance: $67K and $83K
Bottom Line:
Bitcoin is showing early signs of recovery, but it still needs to break above $67K to confirm a stronger trend reversal.