Analyst: Bitcoin 30-day futures premium index returns for the first time, leverage demand shows initial signs of recovery

On July 6, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis report pointing out that the Bitcoin futures market has shown initial signs of recovery since June.

Specifically, the futures market price has returned above the spot price, and the open interest indicator has also turned positive for the first time since June, indicating a preliminary recovery in market risk appetite.

The report shows that since the beginning of June, the Bitcoin futures basis (the difference between futures and spot prices) turned negative and continued to deteriorate as the price fell from $74,000 to $58,500.

By the third week of June, the basis had hit a low of -0.40%, reflecting an extreme lack of forced deleveraging and risk appetite in the market.

Entering July, this indicator has rebounded and returned to positive territory in the past week, indicating that leverage demand is recovering from the previous large-scale position liquidation.

Meanwhile, the open interest index in the futures market, after being negative for most of June, has turned positive in recent trading sessions due to a large number of long positions being opened, further confirming the above trend.

Adler pointed out that although this is an early sign of recovery, further market confirmation is still needed. The current futures premium is relatively small, and the open interest index has also shown signs of cooling, which looks more like a preliminary improvement rather than a full-scale trend reversal.

In summary, investors need to watch whether the Bitcoin futures basis can remain positive and whether the position index can return above the zero line.

If both can be maintained, it will confirm the recovery of market risk appetite; conversely, if a sustained stable upward trend is not confirmed, it may instead lead to another market crash.

#比特币 #Futures market