Bitunix analyst: The real test for risk assets comes from capital, not war.

Mars Finance News, July 6 - Global markets continue the rhythm of "risk events cooling down, liquidity repricing." OPEC+ announced a production increase of 188k barrels per day for August, while the U.S. and Iran still maintain room for negotiations. Transport through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, further reducing energy supply risks. On the other hand, although the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists, market attention is gradually shifting toward potential new diplomatic negotiations that Trump may push forward, as well as how fiscal and monetary policies of various countries will affect global capital flows in the second half of the year.

On the macro level, more divergence signals have emerged. The European Central Bank believes that falling oil prices have re-cooled inflation, while Germany is preparing to expand borrowing due to lower-than-expected fiscal revenue. Japan still faces a weak yen and interest rate differential pressures. Companies like Micron, Samsung, and Infineon continue to ramp up AI and semiconductor investments, indicating that global capital remains concentrated in AI infrastructure rather than fully flowing back into high-risk assets.

In the crypto market, capital sentiment remains relatively conservative. Crypto ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $275 million over the past week, reflecting that even with some easing of geopolitical risks, institutional funds have not actively returned to positions. Currently, the market is more focused on whether global liquidity will improve again, rather than short-term events themselves. Changes in ETF flows will remain an important indicator for observing market risk appetite.

Looking ahead, if oil prices stay low and geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, market focus will gradually shift back to global capital costs, national monetary policies, and whether AI capital expenditures can be sustained. Until new incremental capital enters the market, the crypto market may continue to trade in a range, waiting for the next catalyst that can redirect capital flows.