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Bernstein: AI liquid cooling market doubles in 4 years, high risk of cold plate commoditization

DeepFlowTech
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Deep Tide TechFlow news, July 6 – According to Tide Research, a Bernstein report on July 5 indicates that cold plates are the only component of liquid cooling systems that come into direct contact with chips. A single GB200 NVL72 cabinet requires 108 cold plates. The cold plate market is estimated at approximately $20-3B in 2026, with a baseline scenario of $60-7B in 2030, representing a CAGR of about 20-30% over four years. The NVIDIA Rubin architecture has explicitly adopted 100% liquid cooling without fans. Faulty cold plates are replaced directly, with no repair services involved, putting hardware margins under pressure. Bernstein believes that cold plate designs will converge between 2028-2030, posing a high risk of commoditization, and facing potential replacement by silicon-based microchannel etching technology in the longer term. Outperform-rated stocks: VRT (target $416), NVT ($218), ETN ($534), SBGSY ($310), TT ($550), JCI ($176); CARR is rated market perform with a target of $75.
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