This week the market won't be boring; three macro hammers will fall one after another. Sister Zhixia will help you highlight the key points.

At 2:00 AM on July 9, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the first one since Warsh took office, carries much more weight than usual. The June dot plot has already been made clear: half of the committee members support at least one rate hike by 2026. But to be honest, look at BTC's movement these past few days — after surging to 61,200 on July 2, it has been continuously falling, currently hovering around 62,900, with 63,200 acting like a welded lid — the market has already been pricing in hawkish expectations ahead of time. This rebound from 60,300 to 63,200 itself trades on "bad news fully priced in." The minutes are likely to be hawkish, but I think a lot of preventive measures have already been taken; when they actually come out, they may not be as scary.

At 8:30 PM on the same day, the initial jobless claims data follows. Initial claims continue to run low around 215k, and non-farm payrolls have already collapsed to 57k. If initial claims keep declining, the market will interpret it as "employment is still strong, the Fed has no reason to ease," which is not good for risk assets. I'm not too worried about this; unless the initial claims data shows extreme values, it's more of a short-term disturbance and won't change the direction.

The US-Iran Islamabad talks on July 11 are what I really want to focus on. They involve sanctions, frozen funds, and nuclear issues. Trump said the talks were "very positive," and Iran hasn't flipped the table, so the market still holds a sliver of hope for a deal. Oil prices have already been falling recently; if the talks make progress, oil prices could drop further, easing pressure on the Fed to raise rates, which is a medium-term positive for BTC. I think the market hasn't fully priced this in yet; there is an expectation gap.

In the medium to long term, 60,000 is a dual support level both psychologically and technically. Institutions have already lowered their expectations, indicating that the "rate hike" variable has been largely priced in. Downside space is limited, but time-wise it may still need to grind; rushing is useless.

Stay alert this week, don't bet on a single direction. If there are any unusual moves, Sister Zhixia will let you know.$BTC #gStocks代币化股票上线