Yue Jie’s Analysis: Three Major Events Will Set the Tone for This Week—Crypto Volatility Is About to Break the Deadlock

This week, the crypto market enters a period of intensive macro validation. Three major events will break the multi-day stalemate. Ranked by impact: Fed meeting minutes > U.S.-Iran talks > initial jobless claims data.

1. U.S. Federal Reserve June meeting minutes (July 9, 02:00)
This is the first complete set of minutes since Walsh took office, carrying far more weight than a regular scheduled meeting. The June dot plot has already sent a signal: half of the committee members support at least one rate hike this year.
The market had already priced in hawkish expectations in advance—after “big BTC” pushed higher, it continued to meet resistance below 63,200 and traded in a range. This rebound is essentially a capital standoff built on “bad news already being exhausted.”
Outlook: The minutes are likely to be hawkish, but since most expectations have already been digested by the market, there is limited room for truly negative surprises beyond expectations.

2. U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad (July 11)
The core of the talks centers on easing sanctions, unfreezing frozen funds, and managing nuclear-related issues. For now, both sides’ statements are relatively positive. The event indirectly affects the crypto market through the chain of “oil prices → inflation → monetary policy”:
- Talks go smoothly: Oil prices fall, easing inflation pressure, which indirectly cools rate-hike expectations—this is a medium-term hidden positive;
- Talks hit snags: Geopolitical risks push oil prices higher, reinforcing a hawkish stance and amplifying short-term volatility.

3. Initial jobless claims data (July 9, 20:30)
Prior non-farm payroll data fell well short of expectations, but initial claims have consistently remained at a low level around 21.5k.
- Data continues to decline: Confirms that employment fundamentals remain firm, leaving the Fed with no reason to loosen policy, suppressing risk assets;
- Data rebounds more than expected: Strengthens expectations that the economy is weakening, warms easing expectations, and helps drive a market repair.

Trading ideas:
- Short-term resistance: 629–632 is the zone where bulls test the waters. Above that, 640–645 (previous high + the upper Bollinger Band) is strong resistance, making a one-off breakout difficult.
- Dip-buying window: Below, 615–620 is the bulls’ core defense line. If the minutes trigger a pullback back into this range, you can consider accumulating in batches, as the positive from the U.S.-Iran talks has not been fully realized yet.
- Medium-to-long term: The 60,000 integer level is support on both psychological and technical fronts. Rate-hike expectations have basically already been priced in, so further downside room is limited. The market still needs time to grind out a bottom and build up energy.
Big moves always start before the news lands—there’s no need to obsess over guessing where price will go up or down. Just make your position plan and define your entry/exit levels in advance.
When the market is noisy, everyone watches the ups and downs. Only after the dust settles will you know who got the direction right early. $BTC $ETH #GT二季度销毁257万枚