Bitunix analyst: The real test for risk assets comes from capital, not from war.

BlockBeats message, July 6 — Global markets continue to follow the rhythm of “risk events cooling down and liquidity being repriced.” OPEC+ announced an 188,000 barrels per day increase in production for August. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran still have room for negotiations, and transport through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover, further reducing energy supply risks. On the other hand, although the Russia-Ukraine conflict still persists, the market’s focus is gradually shifting to a new round of diplomatic negotiations that Trump may help drive, as well as how countries’ fiscal and monetary policies will affect global capital flows in the second half of the year.

At the macro level, more signals of divergence are emerging. The European Central Bank believes that the decline in oil prices has cooled inflation again. Germany, meanwhile, is preparing to expand borrowing due to fiscal revenues coming in below expectations. Japan is still facing pressure from a weaker yen and interest-rate spread issues. Companies such as Micron, Samsung, and Infineon continue to step up their AI and semiconductor investments, showing that global capital is still concentrating on AI infrastructure rather than broadly rotating back into high-risk assets.

In the crypto market, liquidity conditions remain relatively conservative. Over the past week, crypto ETFs recorded net outflows of about $275 million, reflecting that even if geopolitical risks have eased somewhat, institutional capital has not actively returned to rebalance positions. The market is currently more focused on whether global liquidity will improve again rather than on short-term events themselves. Changes in ETF flows will continue to be an important indicator for gauging market risk appetite.

Looking ahead, if oil prices continue to stay low and geopolitical tensions do not escalate further, market attention will gradually return to global funding costs, each country’s monetary policy, and whether AI capital expenditure can remain sustainable. Before new incremental capital enters the market, the crypto market may still trade within a range, waiting for the next catalyst strong enough to change the direction of capital flows