Bottom signals and short covering show up at the same time—guys, which one hurts more for us old-timers?

Brothers, CryptoQuant spoke up again today, saying that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has slightly rebounded from below -20. Historically, such extreme lows often serve as a signal that a bottom is being built. But when you look at the on-chain data, the leading shorts have kept adding from June to July.

These two signals are straight-up fighting each other. One is yelling, “Buy the dip—history proves this is the bottom,” while the other says, “The big players are still dumping, and there’s still plenty of room to fall.” Contradictory? Too fucking contradictory.

As someone who’s been playing this game for years, I’ll say it plainly: I trust the action of short covering more. Why? Because those top players have real money in their hands. When they add positions, it’s not for show—they genuinely think they can get another round. Even if the Sharpe ratio lines up with history, it’s still something derived from past review. What matters more is the current flow of capital and the behavior of on-chain whales.

I’ve seen bottom signals way too many times. There are plenty of cases where they called the bottom, and then it kept dropping. Short covering is different. Either they truly see the market as bearish, or they’re quietly accumulating at lower levels, preparing to flip. Either possibility is more worth worrying about than an analyst’s optimistic take.

The market is basically just waiting for a direction right now. No matter how many signals there are, in the end it’s price that speaks for itself. What do you think? Do you buy the rebound in that ratio, or are you watching the whales’ position moves? #比特币巨鲸两周狂扫27万枚BTC