Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds, but spot trading volume rapidly shrinks—long-squeeze risks in derivatives are building

Analysts noted that Bitcoin rose from 58k to nearly 64k, while spot trading volume quickly declined and lacked spot-demand support. The rebound may be only an emotional correction; its persistence needs to be watched. The USDC/USDT rate fell to 1.0006; exit willingness weakened and trading willingness picked up. Stablecoin fund outflows slowed down, and marginal improvement in liquidity supports the continuation of the rebound. Weak spot performance is driving an increase in the relative weight of derivatives; the perpetual long premium continues to rise. This signals that the risk of an implied long/short squeeze is increasing, and investors should be alert to the more intense volatility brought by a rebound in positions.

Mars Finance reported that on July 6, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin’s rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, relative spot volume fell rapidly and the rebound lacked spot-demand support, making it difficult to form the foundation for a trend reversal. It often turns out to be a sentiment-repair type of market, so the sustainability of the rebound needs to be monitored. On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate dropped from 1.001 to 1.0006, showing that intentions to exit were weakening and trading intentions were recovering. Although major stablecoins on trading platforms still remain in a net outflow state, the outflow magnitude has continued to narrow, and marginal improvement in funding pressure provides support for the rebound to continue. However, the weakening of spot momentum also means the relative share of derivatives has increased. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premium has continued to rise to $160k per hour, indicating that continuous Taker buy orders are pushing the perpetual price above the spot price. Although open interest has declined, it is still clearly higher than the level in February this year. The current long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of a long squeeze will keep accumulating—once open interest rebounds again, intense long/short battles will make volatility arrive faster and more sharply. This is a hidden risk that needs to be watched in advance.
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