Adjustment end or trend continuation: BTC, HYPE technical structure review | Special analysis

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This weekly report focuses on a multi-cycle technical structure analysis of two major assets: BTC and HYPE. For Bitcoin, the analysis starts from the daily and 4-hour cycles,梳理 the adjustment structure since the high on May 6, and incorporates a proprietary quantitative model to predict key resistance levels, support levels, and short-to-medium-term trading paths for this week. For HYPE, the analysis focuses on the 4-hour level, examining the structural evolution of the current rebound and providing corresponding risk control suggestions for short-term trading this week. The following is the detailed content.

Last Week's Strategy Verification

BTC Price Prediction Verification: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's short-term adjustment was nearing its end. The actual market movement was largely consistent with the predicted path, validating the forward-looking analysis.

HYPE Price Prediction Verification: Last week's article pointed out that a short-term long entry opportunity for HYPE was about to emerge. Currently, market trends have confirmed this judgment.

I. Multi-Cycle Structure Analysis of Bitcoin

1. Daily Level Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

Chart 1

① As shown in Chart 1: Since the high of $82,850 on May 6, the daily adjustment has formed a clear four-wave structure from "Endpoint 0" to "Endpoint 4".

② The market is currently running the (3-4) rebound wave. The location of "Endpoint 4's" final point will determine the short-term price trend.

Path 1: If the rebound price at "Endpoint 4" can break through the resistance at $65,700, then when the price subsequently meets resistance and pulls back, the probability of directly breaking the support at $57,820 (July 1 low) will be significantly reduced. In this scenario, after the adjustment ends, a rebound is likely, and the overall short-term trend tends toward range-bound consolidation. The longer this consolidation structure lasts, the more it helps slow down bearish momentum and accumulate power for a subsequent bullish counterattack.

Path 2: If the rebound price at "Endpoint 4" fails to reach $65,700, or even stays below $64,500, then when the price subsequently meets resistance and pulls back, the probability of directly breaking below $57,820 will increase significantly, and the market is more likely to continue its downtrend.

③ According to analysis from the proprietary quantitative model, the probability of the market entering range-bound consolidation (i.e., Path 1) is significant.

2. Hourly Level Structure Analysis (Using 4-hour Cycle)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

Chart 2

① Last week's review pointed out: "If Endpoint 44's final point is below $58,110 and forms a momentum bottom divergence, the market will see a rebound opportunity." Last week's price movement validated this judgment, with the actual run aligning closely with the predicted structure.

② On the 4-hour chart, the hourly decline wave from the high of $67,300 on June 15 has completed a full five-wave structure. At the end of the adjustment, comparing the two lows "Endpoint 44" and "Endpoint 42", a clear momentum bottom divergence has formed, providing technical support for the subsequent oversold rebound.

③ The market is currently in the (44-45) rebound wave. As seen in Chart 2, the current rebound high "Endpoint 45" has broken above the lower boundary of the previous "declining center F" (approximately $62,300). The short-term trend is developing favorably for the bulls. If the price can further break through "Endpoint 41" (approximately $65,700) in the coming days, it would mean an escalation of the rebound strength. Then, when the subsequent rebound meets resistance and pulls back, the probability of directly breaking below "Endpoint 44" (approximately $57,820) would be significantly reduced.

II. Bitcoin This Week Price Prediction and Trading Strategy (07.06~07.12)

1. BTC This Week Price Trend Prediction

Core View: Focus on the location of the daily oversold rebound high from the low of $57,820.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First resistance zone: $64,500~$65,700 area (previous important high/low points)
• Second resistance zone: Around $67,300 (previous important resistance area)
• Third resistance zone: $69,500~$71,000 area (previous important resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First support zone: $60,950~$62,300 area (previous important support area)
• Second support level: Around $57,820 (previous important support level)
• Third support level: Around $55,000 (previous important support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy

① Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Chart 3

As shown in Chart 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a bearish dominant market structure.

Current medium-term short positions should be held at around 20%.

If the price rebounds to the $65,700~$67,300 area and shows signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from the proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term short position to within 50%.

② Short-term Strategy

Utilize 30% of position, set stop losses, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using the 30-minute/60-minute timeframe as the operation cycle).

③ Short-term Operation Plan

To dynamically respond to complex market changes, two specific operational plans (A and B) are prepared in advance:

Plan A: Cautious Shorting at Strong Resistance Zone

Entry: If the price rebounds to the $65,700~$67,300 area and faces resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, open a short position of about 30%.

Risk Control: Set an initial stop loss.

Exit: When the price adjusts near important support levels, combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close the position to take profit.

Plan B: Light Long Position at Strong Support Zone

Entry: If the price breaks above the $65,700 area and then faces resistance and pulls back, and shows signs of stabilization near the strong support at $57,820, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, open a long position of about 15%.

Risk Control: Set an initial stop loss.

Exit: When the price rebounds near important resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close the position to take profit.

III. HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

Chart 4

As shown in Chart 4, last week's review pointed out: "If 'Endpoint 56' is higher than 'Endpoint 54', a 'double bottom' pattern forms, this adjustment may end, and the probability of a rebound from 'Endpoint 56' is high." So far, the market trajectory has been highly consistent with the analysis. In the actual trend last week, HYPE's price oscillated upward from "Endpoint 56" (approximately $60.55) to "Endpoint 59" (approximately $72.06), with a maximum gain of about 19.01%.

From the 4-hour chart, the rebound of HYPE from the June 25 low of $58.5 (Endpoint 54) can be subdivided into a seven-wave upward structure on the 4-hour cycle: 54-55, 55-56, 56-57, 57-58, 58-59, 59-60, 60-61.

The price is currently running in the 60-61 upward wave, and the overall upward structure is complete. However, from the proprietary "Spread Trading Model," top warning signals have been triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61" respectively. Additionally, the price is approaching the historical high area around $76.94. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly chase the rally at this time; be cautious of short-term adjustment risks.

IV. HYPE This Week Price Prediction and Short-term Trading Strategy

1. HYPE This Week Price Trend Prediction

Core Resistance Levels

First resistance level: Around $75~$76.94
Second resistance level: Around $80

Core Support Levels

First support level: Around $68
Second support level: Around $65.5
Third support zone: $60.5~$61.5 area

This Week's Core View: When the price rises to the $75~$76.94 area, observe the battle between bulls and bears in that zone.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-term Trading Strategy

This week, focus on closing positions to lock in profits and guard against risks. If long positions were opened in the support zone according to the plan, it is recommended to move the stop loss up to around $68 to protect profits (or decide for yourself). If the market experiences an adjustment, close positions promptly to take profits.

V. HYPE Short-term Trade Review

We strictly followed the operation plan, based on trading signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," completing one short-term (long) trade last week, with a total trading profit of approximately 10.23%.

Short-term Trade 1: (See Table 1)

*① HYPE Short-term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage 1)

Table 1

② Short-term Trade Review: (See Chart 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. Based on accurate judgment of the overall upward trend.

b. When the price effectively broke the short-term downtrend line, and the "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model" simultaneously issued a bottom divergence resonance signal.

Therefore, we opened a 30% long position at $64.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rose to the $72 resistance area and showed stagnation, the K-line formed an "top divergence" pattern.

b. The "Spread Trading Model" triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), and formed a top resonance signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we fully closed the position around $70.55.

• Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 10.23%.

HYPE_60-minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Chart 5 (Short-term Trade Illustration)

VI. Special Note

When opening a position: Immediately set an initial stop loss.

When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop loss to the entry cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.

When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop loss to the 1% profit level.

Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit thereafter, move the stop loss by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

Financial markets are ever-changing. All market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies mentioned in this article are based solely on personal technical analysis, serve only as personal trading logs, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets involve risks; invest with caution. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.