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Morgan Stanley: CPO growth overestimated by 30 times, only 23k units in 2026
Deep Tide TechFlow news, July 6: According to Tide Research, Morgan Stanley’s latest CPO report shows a serious divergence between market expectations for CPO and actual shipment figures. In 2026, only 23k units are expected, whereas market expectations had generally been above 200k. The core bottleneck lies in TSMC’s PIC capacity ramp-up (10→25kwpm) and the 20-50% yield bind.
This expectation gap is set to directly hit core names such as Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC. The report also cuts its forecast for TSMC’s CoWoS capacity (from 45 to 40kwpm in 2027), and the 53% growth projection for AllRing faces significant risk.
For optical companies such as Lumentum and Coherent, their CPO-related contributions in 2026-2027 are expected to be less than 1%. On the A-share market side, Tianfu Communication, SMIC, and Eoptolink are basically missing from the key links of the CPO supply chain, with limited linkage to the concepts being hyped by the market. Morgan Stanley advises investors to stay cautious ahead of a potential “disappointing earnings season” in Q2 2027.