End of Adjustment or Trend Continuation: BTC, HYPE Technical Structure Review | Special Analysis

This weekly report focuses on multi-cycle technical structure analysis of two major targets: BTC and HYPE. The Bitcoin section analyzes the adjustment structure since the May 6 high from both the daily and 4-hour cycles, and combines a self-built quantitative model to provide predictions for key resistance, support levels, and medium-to-short-term trading paths this week. The HYPE section focuses on the 4-hour level trend, analyzing the structural evolution of this rebound and offering corresponding risk control suggestions for short-term operations this week. The following are the specific contents.

Last Week's Strategy Verification

• BTC Market Prediction Verification: Last week's article clearly indicated that Bitcoin's short-term adjustment was nearing its end. The actual market path was largely consistent with the predicted trend, validating the forward-looking analysis.
• HYPE Market Prediction Verification: Last week's article pointed out that HYPE was about to present a short-term long entry opportunity. Currently, the market trend has verified this judgment.

I. Bitcoin Multi-Cycle Trend Structure Analysis

1. Daily Level Trend Structure Analysis

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

Figure 1

① As shown in Figure 1: Since the adjustment started from the high of $82,850 on May 6, the daily chart has presented a clear four-section adjustment structure from "Endpoint 0" to "Endpoint 4".

② The market is currently running the (3-4) rebound segment. The position of the end point of "Endpoint 4" will determine the short-term trend of the coin price.

• Path One: If the rebound price of "Endpoint 4" can break through the resistance of $65,700, then when the coin price subsequently meets resistance and falls back, the probability of directly breaking through the support of $57,820 (the low on July 1) will significantly decrease. Under this scenario, after the adjustment ends, the market is expected to rebound again, and the recent overall trend tends to enter a range-bound consolidation pattern. The longer this consolidation structure lasts, the more it helps to reduce downward momentum and accumulate strength for subsequent bullish counterattacks.
• Path Two: If the rebound price of "Endpoint 4" cannot reach $65,700, or even falls below $64,500, then when the price subsequently meets resistance and falls back, the probability of directly falling below $57,820 will greatly increase, and the subsequent market is likely to continue its downward trend.

③ According to the analysis of the self-built quantitative model, the probability of the market entering range-bound consolidation (i.e., Path One) is significant.

2. In-depth Analysis of Hourly Level Trend Structure (Using 4-hour as analysis cycle)

Bitcoin 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 2

① Last week's review pointed out: "If the end point of Endpoint 44 is below $58,110 and forms a momentum bottom divergence, the market will have a rebound opportunity." The market trend last week validated this judgment, with the actual trend highly consistent with the predicted structure.

② On the 4-hour chart, the hourly-level decline wave starting from the high of $67,300 on June 15 has completed a complete five-section structure. At the same time, at the end of the adjustment, comparing the two lows of "Endpoint 44" and "Endpoint 42," a clear momentum bottom divergence pattern has formed, providing technical support for the subsequent oversold rebound.

③ Currently, the market is in the (44-45) rebound phase. From Figure 2, the current rebound high "Endpoint 45" has broken through the lower rail of the previous "decline center F" (approximately $62,300), and the short-term trend is developing in a bullish direction. If the market can further break through "Endpoint 41" (approximately $65,700), it would indicate an upgrade in rebound strength, and the probability of directly falling below "Endpoint 44" (approximately $57,820) after the subsequent rebound meets resistance and declines would be greatly reduced.

II. Bitcoin This Week's Market Prediction and Operation Strategy (07.06～07.12)

1. BTC This Week's Market Trend Prediction

Core View: Focus on the position of the daily oversold rebound high starting from the low of $57,820.

2. Core Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $64,500～$65,700 area (previous important high/low positions)
• Second Resistance Zone: Near $67,300 (previous important resistance area)
• Third Resistance Zone: $69,500～$71,000 area (previous important resistance area)

3. Core Support Levels:

• First Support Level: $60,950～$62,300 area (previous important support level)
• Second Support Level: Near $57,820 (previous important support level)
• Third Support Level: Near $55,000 (previous important support level)

4. This Week's Operation Strategy

① Medium-term Strategy:

** Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)**

Figure 3

As shown in Figure 3, the current coin price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," and the market structure has confirmed a shift to a bearish dominant pattern.

• Current medium-term bearish positions should remain at about 20%.
• If the coin price rebounds to the $65,700～$67,300 area and shows signs of stagnation, combined with top signals from the self-built quantitative model, consider increasing the medium-term bearish position to within 50%.

② Short-term Strategy

Use 30% of positions, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels (using 30-minute/60-minute as operation cycles).

③ Short-term Operation Plan

To dynamically respond to complex market developments, prepare two specific operation plans in advance: A and B.

• Plan A: Tentative Shorting at Strong Resistance Zone
• Entry: If the coin price rebounds to the $65,700～$67,300 area and meets resistance, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish a bearish position of about 30%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the adjustment reaches important support levels and combined with signals from the quantitative model, gradually close positions for profit.
• Plan B: Light Long at Strong Support Zone
• Entry: If the coin price breaks through the $65,700 area and then retreats to near the strong support of $57,820 with signs of stabilization, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish a bullish position of about 15%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the rebound approaches important resistance levels and combined with model signals, gradually close positions for profit.

III. HYPE Hourly Level Trend Structure Analysis

HYPE 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 4

1. As shown in Figure 4, last week's review pointed out: "If 'Endpoint 56' is higher than 'Endpoint 54', a 'double bottom' pattern is formed, and this adjustment may end, with a high probability of a rebound from 'Endpoint 56'." Up to now, the market trend is highly consistent with the analysis. In the actual trend last week, HYPE price rose from "Endpoint 56" (approximately $60.55) to "Endpoint 59" (approximately $72.06) in a fluctuating manner, with a maximum gain of about 19.01%.
2. From the 4-hour chart, the rebound of HYPE starting from the low of $58.5 on June 25 (Endpoint 54) can be subdivided into a seven-section upward structure on the 4-hour cycle: 54-55, 55-56, 56-57, 57-58, 58-59, 59-60, 60-61.
3. Currently, the price is running the 60-61 upward segment, with the overall upward structure complete. However, from the self-built "spread trading model," top warning signals have been triggered at "Endpoint 59" and "Endpoint 61," respectively, and the price has approached the historical high area near $76.94. Therefore, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs at this time; be cautious of short-term adjustment risk.

IV. HYPE This Week's Market Prediction and Short-term Operation Strategy

1. HYPE This Week's Market Trend Prediction

Core Resistance Levels

• First Resistance Level: Near $75～$76.94
• Second Resistance Level: Near $80

Core Support Levels

• First Support Level: Near $68
• Second Support Level: Near $65.5
• Third Support Level: $60.5～$61.5 area

This Week's Core View: When the price rises to the $75～$76.94 area, observe the result of the battle between bulls and bears in that area.

2. HYPE This Week's Short-term Operation Strategy

This week, focus on closing positions to lock in profits and prevent risks. If you have already placed long orders in the support area according to the plan, it is recommended to move the stop-loss up to around $68 to protect profits (or decide on your own). If the market adjusts, close positions promptly to take profits.

V. HYPE Short-term Operation Review

We strictly followed the operation plan, based on trading signals from our self-built "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model," completing one short-term (long) operation last week, with a total trading profit of approximately 10.23%.

Short-term Trade 1: (See Table 1)

① HYPE Short-term Trade Details Summary: (Leverage *1)

Table 1

② Short-term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

• Entry Strategy:

a. Based on accurate judgment of the overall upward trend of the price.

b. When the price effectively broke through the short-term downtrend line, and the "spread trading model" and "momentum quantitative model" simultaneously issued bottom divergence resonance signals.

Therefore, we established a 30% long position at $64.

• Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rose to the $72 resistance area and showed stagnation, forming a "top divergence" pattern on the K-line;

b. The "spread trading model" triggered a strong top warning signal (green dot + white dot), and formed a top resonance signal with the "momentum quantitative model."

Therefore, we fully closed the position near $70.55.

• Summary: This trade successfully profited about 10.23%.

HYPE_60-minute K-line Chart: (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

Figure 5 (Short-term Trade Illustration)

VI. Special Notes

1. When opening a position: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the cost price (breakeven point) to ensure principal safety.
3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous tracking: For every additional 1% profit thereafter, move the stop-loss by 1% accordingly, dynamically protecting and locking in profits.

The financial market changes rapidly. All market analysis and trading strategies need dynamic adjustments. All views, analysis models, and operation strategies mentioned in this article are based on personal technical analysis, solely for personal trading log purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. The market has risks; investment must be cautious. Do not make decisions based on this.