CME data shows a 77% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in July, with only a 23% probability of a rate hike.

On Polymarket, bets indicate an 89.5% probability of holding steady.
What about gold? On the morning of July 6, it stood above $4,200, hitting a two-week high.
What about Bitcoin? From falling below $60k at the end of June, it rebounded all the way to nearly $64,000 by July 6. Short sellers were liquidated for hundreds of millions of dollars.
It looks like everything is perfect — “Non-farm payroll surprise → collapse of rate hike expectations → rise of rate cut expectations → surge in risk assets.”
This logical chain is on the verge of breaking.
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