Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to $64,000, but spot relative volume declined rapidly. A rebound lacking support from spot demand can hardly form a trend reversal.

The USDC/USDT exchange rate fell back from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating a weakening exit intention; the net outflow of major stablecoins narrowed, and the capital pressure marginally improved. However, the weakening spot driving force increased the weight of derivatives. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premium rose to $160k per hour, and open interest remains higher than February levels.
The current long premium is still normal, but continued rebound will accumulate the risk of a long squeeze. Once open interest rebounds, volatility will become more intense. In the absence of spot support, rallies driven by derivatives tend to be more fragile.
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