Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume shrinks rapidly, derivatives long squeeze risk is accumulating.

Mars Finance News: On July 6, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin’s rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, spot relative trading volume has quickly fallen. A rebound that lacks spot demand support is difficult to form the basis for a trend reversal; it is often only a sentiment-repair rally. Therefore, the key thing to watch is the rebound’s staying power. On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate has dropped from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating that exit intentions are weakening while trading intent is picking up. Although mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in a net outflow state, the magnitude of outflows continues to narrow. The marginal improvement in capital pressure provides support for the rebound to continue.

However, weakening spot drivers also means that derivatives’ relative weight is increasing. The 7-day average of the perpetual contract long premium has continued to rise to $160,000 per hour, indicating that persistent Taker buying is pushing the perpetual price above spot. While open interest has declined somewhat, it remains clearly higher than the level in February this year. The current long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of a long squeeze will keep building. Once open interest rises again, intense long-versus-short contention will make volatility arrive faster and more sharply—an issue that should be noted in advance.