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Analysis: Bitcoin Rebounds but Spot Trading Volume Rapidly Shrinks, Accumulating Long Squeeze Risks in Derivatives

AirdropBlackHole
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On July 6, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, the relative spot trading volume quickly declined. A rebound lacking support from spot demand is unlikely to form the basis for a trend reversal and is often merely a sentiment-driven recovery, necessitating attention to the sustainability of the rebound. On a positive note, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating a weakening intention to exit and a resurgence in trading intent. Although mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still experiencing net outflows, the rate of outflow has been consistently narrowing, and the marginal improvement in liquidity pressure supports the continuation of the rebound. However, the weakening of spot driving forces means that the weight of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premiums has continued to rise to $160,000/hour, indicating that Taker buying is persistently pushing perpetual prices above spot prices; although open interest has decreased, it remains significantly higher than levels seen in February of this year. Currently, the long premium is still within a normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeezes will accumulate. Once open interest rebounds again, intense long-short battles will lead to faster and more abrupt volatility, which is a potential risk that needs to be monitored in advance.
BTC1.91%
USDC-0.02%
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