On July 6, Critini Research analyst Jukan pointed out that Samsung and SK Hynix are re-evaluating the timing for adopting hybrid bonding in HBM, and it may not be implemented even by HBM5. There are two core reasons for this: first, JEDEC is discussing relaxing the thickness standard for HBM5 to a maximum of about 1000μm (HBM3E is 720μm, and HBM4 has been relaxed to 775μm). With the standard loosening, the thinning advantage of hybrid bonding without bumps is no longer urgent; second, there are simpler alternatives for heat dissipation—Samsung has developed the Heat Path Block, and SK Hynix has launched iHBM (ICE HBM), both of which involve placing independent heat dissipation devices next to HBM, planned for application starting with HBM5, which poses lower technical difficulty and more stable commercialization. Additionally, major clients like Nvidia currently do not have urgent demands for high-stacking products with over 16 layers, and 12-layer products may still be mainstream in the HBM4E phase. However, research and development of hybrid bonding has not stagnated. Currently, the I/O count of HBM4 has doubled to 2048, and the existing TC thermal compression bonding process is nearing its limits; if the I/O count further doubles to 4096 in the future HBM5E phase, the lateral diffusion of bumps will make TC bonding difficult to support, necessitating the use of copper direct bonding for hybrid bonding to achieve higher density connections. Jukan assesses that in the short term, due to simpler solutions for thickness and heat dissipation, hybrid bonding will not be deployed on a large scale; however, in the medium to long term, when I/O density explodes again, it will still be an inevitable direction. This will directly impact the market expectations of core suppliers of hybrid bonding equipment like Besi. The delay in the technology shift means that the timeline for scaling up related equipment orders needs to be re-evaluated.

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Critini Analyst: Samsung and SK Hynix Reassessing Timing for HBM Hybrid Bonding Adoption, Technology Shift May Be Delayed

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