Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds but spot trading volume shrinks rapidly, derivative long squeeze risk is accumulating.

BlockBeats news, on July 6, crypto analyst Murphy pointed out that during Bitcoin's rebound from $58,000 to nearly $64,000, spot relative volume declined rapidly. A rebound lacking spot demand support is difficult to form a basis for a trend reversal, often only a sentiment recovery market, and the sustainability of the rebound needs attention. On the positive side, the USDC/USDT exchange rate fell from 1.001 to 1.0006, indicating that exit intentions are weakening and trading intentions are picking up; mainstream stablecoins on trading platforms are still in net outflow, but the outflow is continuously narrowing, and the marginal improvement in funding pressure supports the continuation of the rebound.

However, the weakening of spot driving forces means the weight of derivatives is relatively increasing. The 7-day average of perpetual contract long premium continues to rise to $160k/hour, indicating that Taker buying is continuously pushing the perpetual price above spot; although open interest has declined, it is still significantly higher than the February level this year. The current long premium is still within the normal range, but as the rebound continues, the risk of long squeeze will accumulate—once open interest rebounds again, the fierce long-short battle will make volatility faster and more violent, which is a hidden danger that needs attention in advance.