$BTC 7.6 Crypto Daily Analysis

⚠️Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile. The content is for market reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Futures contracts with high leverage can easily lead to liquidation.
BTC is currently at $63,100. After the cooling of non-farm payroll expectations for rate hikes triggered consecutive rebounds, the Asian session pushed to above $64,000 before facing resistance and pulling back. Bullish momentum is gradually weakening, with a concentration of high-level trapped positions. This round is only an oversold recovery, and the medium-term bearish trend has not reversed. ETH is oscillating around $1,760. Mainstream altcoins have slightly followed the rise, while small-cap coins are heavily diverging, with weak capital clustering. Market sentiment is recovering, but the aftermath of previous large outflows from spot ETFs remains. Institutions have not yet made large-scale return moves. Citi has lowered its full-year price targets for BTC and ETH, and medium-to-long-term selling pressure risks still exist.
On the macro level, the June non-farm payroll data significantly missed expectations, and the probability of a rate hike this year has dropped sharply. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields is short-term positive for non-yielding crypto assets, but the high-interest-rate cycle has not completely ended. Capital continues to be diverted to the US stock AI sector, and incremental off-market funds are insufficient.
Key levels: BTC strong resistance at $64,000-$64,700, support at $63,000; if lost, the rebound ends. ETH resistance at $1,780, support at $1,700.
Trading ideas: Strictly avoid chasing highs. For spot, wait for a retest of support levels before accumulating in batches. For futures, lightly short near resistance levels with reduced leverage throughout. Altcoin trends lack sustainability, so try to avoid them. In the evening, watch for wick movements caused by fluctuations in US stocks and US bonds.#gStocks代币化股票上线