Optical Chip in the Spotlight: Capacity Still in Short Supply, Yet Why Is the Narrative Starting to Loosen?

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In 2026, the global optical communication chipset market is expected to exceed $11 billion, with a CAGR of 17% from 2025 to 2030. Domestic substitution has shifted from “optional” to “mandatory” — for the first time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has positioned high-speed optical modules as “AI computing power, 6G core underlying hardware,” setting a hard target that by 2028 the self-sufficiency rate for high-end 200G EML optical chips will reach 45%. The supply-demand gap for indium phosphide (InP) substrates exceeds 70%; over 90% of global production capacity is monopolized by three Japanese and U.S. companies, and the domestic localization rate of 6-inch InP substrates is less than 5%. Silicon photonics technology will take up more than 50% of the optical module market for the first time in 2026, and thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN) enters its first year of industrialization.
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