Critini analysts: Samsung and SK Hynix are reevaluating the timing of adopting hybrid bonding for HBM, and the technology transition may be delayed.

BlockBeats news, July 6 - Critini Research analyst Jukan pointed out that Samsung and SK Hynix are reassessing the timing for adopting hybrid bonding in HBM, and even HBM5 may not adopt it for now. There are two core reasons:

First, JEDEC is discussing relaxing the thickness standard for HBM5 to a maximum of approximately 1000μm (HBM3E is 720μm, HBM4 has already been relaxed to 775μm). With the standard loosened, the advantage of thickness reduction through bumpless hybrid bonding is no longer urgent;

Second, there is a simpler alternative for heat dissipation issues — Samsung has developed the Heat Path Block, and SK Hynix has launched iHBM (ICE HBM), both of which involve placing independent heat dissipation components beside the HBM. These are planned for application starting from HBM5, with lower technical difficulty and more reliable commercialization.

In addition, major customers like NVIDIA currently have no urgent demand for products with more than 16 stacked layers. 12-layer products may still dominate the market in the HBM4E phase. However, research on hybrid bonding has not stalled. The number of I/O in current HBM4 has doubled to 2,048, and the existing TC (thermocompression) bonding process is approaching its limit. If the I/O further doubles to 4,096 in the future HBM5E phase, the lateral diffusion of bumps will make TC bonding unsustainable, making copper direct bonding (hybrid bonding) necessary to achieve higher-density interconnections.

Jukan's assessment: In the short term, due to simpler solutions for thickness and heat dissipation, hybrid bonding will not be deployed on a large scale; however, in the medium to long term, when I/O density explodes again, it remains an inevitable direction. This will directly impact the market expectations of Besi, a core supplier of hybrid bonding equipment. The delay in technology transition means that the timeline for scaling up related equipment orders needs to be re-evaluated.