This week's major agenda: China inflation data, Samsung earnings preview, SK Hynix US stock debut, Zhipu MiniMax unlock.

Major Financial and Economic Events for the Week of July 5 – July 13, All Times Beijing:

Key Focus This Week:

Macro Data and Policy: On July 9, China's June CPI and PPI will be released, with the market watching whether the "K-shaped divergence" in prices persists. On the same day, the Fed will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, the first chaired by new Chair Walsh. Half of the committee members already expect a rate hike this year. Whether the minutes confirm a hawkish tone will directly impact global asset pricing. Additionally, the U.S. will hold hearings on imposing tariffs on 60 countries, a new variable in trade friction that cannot be ignored. Saudi media reported that a new round of U.S.-Iran talks will be held in Pakistan on the 11th.

Capital Markets: Zhipu, MiniMax, and Tiantianzhixin face a combined lockup expiration of over HKD 85 billion, putting the scarcity premium of AI unicorns to the first test. Major IPOs such as Luxshare Precision and Three Rings Group are set to list in Hong Kong simultaneously, putting pressure on Hong Kong stock market liquidity. SpaceX is being rapidly added to the Nasdaq 100, and SK Hynix ADR is launching its record-breaking U.S. IPO. Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary Q2 earnings on Tuesday (July 7). New A-share trading rules take effect, expanding the daily price limit for ST stocks to 10%, quietly reshaping the market ecosystem. The U.S. Q2 earnings season begins, and A-share interim report pre-announcements are coming thick and fast.

Technology Industry: The Sun Valley Annual Summit gathers tech giants including Apple's Cook, Amazon's Bezos, Meta's Zuckerberg, and OpenAI's Altman, but notable absences include Musk and Huang Renxun. Europe's first Physical AI Summit, the MACHINA Summit, opens in Paris on July 7, coinciding with China's embodied intelligent robot conference. Updates on production timelines for Tesla, Ubtech, and Zhiyuan are expected. In aerospace, the Zhuque-3 Y2 is expected to launch again at Jiuquan on July 9 to verify vertical recovery technology, while the first flight test of the Long March 85B targets July 10-13 at Wenchang to verify the world's first "maritime grid recovery" technology.

Economic Indicators

• China June CPI YoY

China's June CPI and PPI will be released on Thursday, July 9. Zhejiang Securities' Li Chao and team expect June prices to continue the "K-shaped divergence," with industrial goods prices stronger than consumer goods prices. They forecast CPI to rise 1.1% YoY and PPI to rise 4.1% YoY, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

• China June Financial Data, Foreign Exchange Reserves

On July 7, China's June foreign exchange reserves will be released. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 19 consecutive months.

During the week of July 9, China's latest June financial data is expected to be released. Zhejiang Securities expects financial data to be a weak link in June's macro data, with credit expansion and capital activation possibly slowing. They forecast new yuan loans of RMB 2.0 trillion in June and new social financing of approximately RMB 2.89 trillion.

Financial Events

• Sun Valley Annual Summit: OpenAI, Apple, Meta CEOs Attend; Huang Renxun, Musk Absent

The annual Allen & Company Sun Valley Summit is expected to be held from July 7 to 10 in Sun Valley, Idaho, USA. This gathering, known as the "billionaire summer camp," brings together top tech giants, media moguls, and AI leaders for several days of high-level closed-door exchanges and deal negotiations.

According to the attendee list obtained by Variety, Apple CEO Cook, Amazon's Bezos, Meta's Zuckerberg, OpenAI's Altman, and other tech and AI leaders are all attending. New faces such as Disney's new CEO D'Amaro and Apple's incoming leader John Ternus will also debut. Notably, Musk and Nvidia's Huang Renxun are absent this year.

• USTR Public Hearing on Tariffs for 60 Economies

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) will hold a public hearing on July 7 to consider imposing additional tariffs on 60 economies globally. According to Xinhua Finance, the USTR previously announced that based on Section 301 investigation results, the USTR plans to impose tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on 60 economies on the grounds of "failure to ban imports of forced labor products."

• Saudi Media: New Round of US-Iran Talks to be Held in Pakistan on the 11th

According to Xinhua News Agency, Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV reported on the 4th, citing sources, that a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran will be held in Pakistan on the 11th.

• Zhipu, MiniMax, Tiantianzhixin First Batch of IPO Cornerstone Lock-Up Shares Expire

Zhipu and MiniMax will face their first batch of lock-up share expirations after their Hong Kong IPOs on July 8 and 9, respectively, with a combined market value of over HKD 85 billion. MiniMax's expiration is particularly significant, involving shares ranging from 34% to 63% of total share capital.

Morgan Stanley has previously warned that both have extremely small free float and significant liquidity premiums. The supply-demand relationship will reverse for the first time after the lock-up expiry, putting the scarcity premium of their stock prices under severe test.

In addition, Tiantianzhixin's first batch of Hong Kong IPO cornerstone lock-up shares will expire around July 8.

• OpenAI Plans to Release GPT-5.6 on July 7

According to reports from Xin Zhi Yuan, OpenAI plans to release GPT-5.6 on July 7, precisely coinciding with the expiration date of the Claude Fable 5 quota limit. Code leaks show that GPT-5.6 includes three sub-models: Sol, Terra, and Luna, and introduces a "speed dial" feature. Internal comparison tests show that GPT-5.6 outperforms Fable 5 in efficiency and response speed, and is more price competitive. Sol Ultra is expected to rival Fable 5's performance at a lower price.

• Fed to Release Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

On Thursday, July 9, the Fed will release the minutes of the June FOMC meeting, which is also the first minutes chaired by Walsh. The June dot plot already showed half of the committee members expect at least one rate hike this year. The market is watching whether the minutes can further confirm this hawkish bias and whether any members consider a rate hike as the baseline scenario. Notably, Walsh has promoted communication mechanism reforms after taking office, and the minutes may be shortened in length and detail this time.

Additionally, on July 9-10, FOMC permanent voter Williams and 2026 FOMC voter Logan will deliver speeches. Deutsche Bank's latest research points out that this round of speech calendar is unusually sparse. Historically, similar quiet periods often occur around turning points in monetary policy, so investors need to stay alert. Fed officials went "silent" collectively after the June FOMC meeting, drawing significant market attention.

• NATO Summit Scheduled for July 7-8

The NATO summit is scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. According to CCTV News, US officials have unilaterally stated that the summit will be "very successful," but in reality, there are many differences between the US and Europe on NATO defense issues.

• South Korea's National Assembly Launches System Reform Discussion: Focus on Single-Stock Leveraged ETF Regulation

The special committee of South Korea's Democratic Party will hold an internal closed-door review meeting on July 6 to initiate a review of capital market policies, focusing on investigating the regulation of single-stock leveraged ETFs. After the listing of leveraged ETFs for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, their scale has expanded rapidly, which is accused of exacerbating market volatility and harming retail investors.

• Starmer: UK Labour Party Leadership Election to Begin July 9

According to Xinhua News Agency, UK Prime Minister Starmer announced his resignation on the 22nd, stating that the election for a new leader of the UK Labour Party will begin on July 9. Starmer said he has asked the Labour Party's National Executive Committee to set a timetable for the leadership election, with the nomination process starting on July 9 and to be completed before the summer recess of parliament. This means that a new Labour leader will be elected before parliament reconvenes in September.

• ECB President Lagarde to Attend EU Finance Ministers' Meeting, Does Not Rule Out Early Departure

Lagarde said she does not rule out the possibility of ending her current term early and participating in French politics if macro uncertainties subside. The ECB's weekly agenda shows that Lagarde will not only attend the Eurogroup meeting on July 9 but also the broader EU finance ministers' meeting the following day. This arrangement is quite rare, as such meetings have historically been attended by the Vice President of the ECB.

• Europe's First Physical AI Summit: MACHINA Summit

The MACHINA Summit will be held in Paris, France on July 7, marking Europe's first dedicated Physical AI/Embodied Intelligence summit. It is the highest-profile overseas event for global robotics/humanoid robots in July.

• China Internet Conference, Robot Conference, Auto Expo

The 2026 (25th) China Internet Conference will be held in Beijing from July 8-10.

The 23rd Changchun International Auto Expo will be held from July 11 to July 20.

The 2026 China (Nanjing) Embodied Intelligent Robot Industry Exhibition will be held in Nanjing from July 10-12. According to the agenda, Tesla, Ubtech, and Zhiyuan are expected to disclose production timelines and component tenders.

The 2026 "Robot+" Innovation and Development Conference will be held in Jinan, Shandong from July 11-13. A major release at this conference will be the "'Robot+' Application Scenario White Paper."

• OPEC+ Meeting

OPEC stated that seven OPEC+ member countries will hold their next meeting on July 5.

• Zhuque-3 Expected to Launch Again at Jiuquan on July 9

According to the National Business Daily, the Zhuque-3 is expected to launch again at Jiuquan on July 9 to verify land-based vertical recovery technology (actual time pending official announcement).

• Long March 85B First Flight Test May Target July 10-13

According to media reports cited by the National Business Daily, it is expected that from July 10-13, China's large-payload recoverable rocket, the Long March 200.1B, will make its maiden flight, achieving a leap from 0 to 1, simultaneously verifying maritime grid recovery technology. At the same time, the Zhuque-3 Y2 is expected to launch again in July, possibly conducting another first-stage re-entry recovery mission. The launch window for the Long March 383.5M first flight test may target July 10-13, aiming to verify the world's first "maritime grid recovery" technology at the Wenchang Commercial Space Launch Site.

Earnings Reports and Listing Schedules, etc.

• Samsung Electronics to Release Preliminary Q2 Earnings on Tuesday (July 7)

Samsung Electronics will release its preliminary Q2 earnings on Tuesday (July 7). Wall Street generally expects Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q2 profit to hit a record high.

• SK Hynix US ADR Tentatively Set to List on Nasdaq on July 10

According to Yonhap News, South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix is tentatively set to list American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on Nasdaq on July 10. SK Hynix announced on the 24th that it will issue depositary receipts worth up to KRW 45.45 trillion (approximately RMB 200.1 billion) for listing on Nasdaq. If realized, this issuance could rival Alibaba Group's record-breaking $25 billion IPO.

• MLCC Leader Three Rings Group Expected to List in Hong Kong on July 9

According to documents filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chaozhou Three Rings (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to issue 71 million shares for its Hong Kong IPO, with an issue price of up to HKD 100.30 per share. Listing is expected on July 9. In addition, Qiyunshan Food will offer 25 million shares in Hong Kong at an issue price range of HKD 5 to HKD 8 per share. Trading is expected to begin on July 9.

• Luxshare Precision Expected to List in Hong Kong on July 9

Apple's core supplier Luxshare Precision officially launched its global H-share offering on June 30, planning to issue approximately 383.5 million shares at a maximum issue price of HKD 63.28 per share, with net proceeds of approximately HKD 24 billion (about US$3.1 billion). It is expected to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 9. This is Luxshare Precision's first foray into the Hong Kong stock market since its listing on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on September 15, 2010, and one of the most significant IPOs in the Hong Kong consumer electronics/precision manufacturing sector this year.

• Nasdaq: SpaceX to be Added to Nasdaq 100 Index on July 7

Musk's space exploration company SpaceX has become one of the fastest companies ever to be added to the Nasdaq 100 Index, ushering in a wave of new buying from passive investors less than a month after its record-breaking public debut.

Nasdaq announced that index tracking funds and other product issuers will begin buying shares after the market close on July 6, and SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq 100 Index before the market opens on July 7, expected to enter the index with a weight of less than 1%.

• New A-Share Trading Rules to Take Effect on July 6: Main Board ST Stock Price Limit Raised to 10%

From July 6, 2026, adjustments to the rules of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges will take effect. The new rules optimize the closing trading mechanism for funds, expand the applicable varieties for post-market fixed-price trading, and raise the daily price limit for main board ST stocks to 10%.

• South Korea Plans to Launch 24-Hour Foreign Exchange Trading

South Korea will implement 24-hour trading for the Korean won starting July 6, the biggest relaxation of foreign exchange controls in decades and a core initiative to gain MSCI developed market status. However, the timing of the reform is delicate, as the won has fallen to a 17-year low, with cumulative losses of over 6% year-to-date. South Korea's economic structure is shifting from net capital inflow to net outflow, with the national pension fund increasing overseas allocations and foreign investors continuing to exit Korean stocks. 24-hour trading could exacerbate short-term foreign exchange volatility.

• Kingsoft Cloud: AI Computing-Related Product Service Prices to Increase by Approximately 15%-50%

Kingsoft Cloud: AI computing-related product service prices will increase by approximately 15%-50%, effective from 00:00:00 on July 12, 2026, Beijing time.

• US Q2 Earnings Season Begins, A-Share Interim Report Pre-Announcements Arrive Intensively

July will see a wave of interim report pre-announcements and interim report disclosures. Mandatory interim report pre-announcement deadline: before July 15, companies listed on the main board that are loss-making, turning profitable, or experiencing a YoY change of ±50% must issue a pre-announcement.

Additionally, this week, Fast Retailing, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and others will release earnings, kicking off the US Q2 earnings season. From July 9 onwards, overseas giants will also enter a peak period for earnings pre-announcements.

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