Bitcoin has closed lower for three consecutive quarters, with the latest quarterly decline of approximately 16.1%. At the same time, the Sharpe ratio and the Miner Cycle Stress Composite Index have both fallen to extreme lows.

The Sharpe ratio briefly dropped below -20 before slightly recovering. In traditional understanding, this represents "risk far outweighing returns," but in Bitcoin's past cycles, such extreme pessimistic ranges have often appeared near the bottom-building phase.
The Miner Cycle Stress Composite Index, composed of the Puell Multiple and the Inverse Miner Capitulation Index, has fallen to a new low in 2026 and is considered to have entered a historically "undervalued" range. This indicator experienced similar collapses near cycle bottoms such as 2015 and 2018.
The price decline, combined with the "triple resonance" of risk and miner stress, makes the current phase both seem like a concentrated release of panic and potentially the floor area of a new cycle. However, these data come from the perspective of a few analysts, and it remains to be seen whether miner behavior and the macroeconomic environment will continue to increase pressure.