A Brief Analysis of BTC Short-Term Trend from the Perspectives of Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌I. Dow Theory
Primary Trend (1-hour level): The mid-term downtrend from the June 3 high of 67,410 is extremely clear. The price dropped from 67,410 to the July 1 low of 57,720, a decline of about 9,690. However, since July 1, the price has shown a clear "higher lows" pattern: 57,720 (7-01) → 58,255 (7-01) → 59,307 (7-02) → 59,500 (7-03), and from July 2 to 6, successive rebounds broke through the integer levels of 61,000, 62,000, and 63,000, reaching a high of 63,702 (early session on July 6). The primary trend remains downward, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened, and the price is testing resistance against the main downtrend line.
Short-term Trend (15-minute level): The short-term uptrend from the July 1 low of 57,720 is being confirmed. Short-term highs have moved up from 59,500 (7-01) to 60,444 (7-01) → 61,881 (7-02) → 62,872 (7-03) → 63,402 (7-04) → 63,702 (7-06), with short-term lows moving up simultaneously. In the early session on July 6, the price consolidated strongly in the 63,500–63,700 range, indicating sustained bullish strength. The short-term trend has shifted from "accumulation at the bottom with oscillation" to an "uptrend."
Dow Conclusion: The primary trend remains deeply downward, but the downward momentum has significantly weakened, and the price is testing resistance against the downtrend line. The short-term trend has entered an upward phase. 62,500 is the short-term support line; if it is lost, a retracement to 61,000–60,000 is possible; if the price can break and hold above 64,000, the primary downtrend would be confirmed reversed, targeting 65,000–66,000.
II. Chan Theory (Chan Theory)
Fractal Structure: On the 15-minute level, recent fractals show a clear "higher lows, higher highs" bullish arrangement.
Top Fractals: Occurred at 62,304 (July 3, 15:00), 62,872 (July 3, 21:00), 63,402 (July 4, 21:30), 63,702 (July 6, 07:45), etc. Top fractals are moving up, from the 62,300 range to the 63,700 range, indicating increasing bullish strength.
Bottom Fractals: Occurred at 57,720 (July 1, 01:00), 58,255 (July 1, 12:00), 59,500 (July 3, 13:15), 62,459 (July 3, 21:30), 62,730 (July 4, 16:15), 62,484 (July 5, 00:00), etc. Bottom fractals show a significant upward shift, indicating strong willingness from bulls to take over.
Stroke (Bi) and Segment: From the bottom fractal at 57,720 to the top fractal at 63,702 (July 6, 07:45), an extremely strong upward stroke was formed, with a gain of approximately 5,982, showing great strength. Currently, starting from the top fractal at 63,702, a new downward stroke is being constructed, but the retracement is minimal, indicating significantly weakened bearish strength.
Central Hub Zone: In the 62,000–64,000 range, K-lines from July 3 to 6 are densely intertwined, forming a new upward hub. The current price of 63,698 is near the upper edge of this hub, which is in the hub formation stage. In the 58,000–61,000 range, a bottoming hub was formed from June 25 to July 2, and the price has completely broken above the upper edge of that hub, entering an accelerated upward phase after the breakout.
Chan Conclusion: The upward stroke is extremely strong (+5,982), currently in a consolidation phase after extending the upward stroke. Short-term focus is on whether an effective top fractal can form near 63,702. If not, the upward stroke will extend, targeting 64,500–65,000; if 62,500 is lost and 61,500 is broken, the downward stroke will restart.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the wave structure at the 1-hour level, the trend from the June 3 high of 67,410 is divided into waves, presenting a typical "five-wave decline complete + ABC rebound with C wave unfolding" structure:
Wave 1 (Crash): From 67,410 crashed to 63,250 (June 4), amplitude about -4,160.
Wave 2 (Bounce): From 63,250 bounced to 67,254 (June 15), amplitude about +4,004.
Wave 3 (Main decline): From 67,254 crashed to 58,026 (June 25), amplitude about -9,228.
Wave 4 (Bounce): From 58,026 bounced to 65,549 (June 22), amplitude about +7,523.
Wave 5 (Terminal crash): From 65,549 crashed to 57,720 (July 1), amplitude about -7,829.
Wave A (Bounce): From 57,720 bounced to 61,881 (July 2), amplitude about +4,161.
Wave B (Pullback): From 61,881 pulled back to 59,500 (July 3, 13:15), amplitude about -2,381.
Wave C (Unfolding): From 59,500 rallied to 63,702 (July 6), amplitude about +4,202. Wave C has already exceeded the equality target of Wave A (63,661). If Wave C is 1.618 times Wave A, the target is approximately 65,200–66,000.
Elliott Conclusion: Currently in the unfolding phase of the ABC rebound C wave, which is strong and has already exceeded the equality of Wave A. If Wave C can break above 64,000 and continue upward, the rebound targets 65,000–66,000; if Wave C forms a top fractal at 63,702 and falls below 62,500, then Wave C fails, retracing to 61,000.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall Volume-Price Characteristics: The crash phase on June 25 showed a very obvious increase in volume. When a new low of 57,720 was made on July 1, volume expanded significantly, indicating a full release of panic selling. During the rebound phase from July 2 to 6, volume expanded moderately and continuously. In the early session on July 6, when the price rallied to 63,500, volume noticeably increased. Overall, it presents a positive volume-price combination of "crash with high volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with continuous volume expansion."
Key Volume-Price Nodes:
- June 25, 13:00: A high-volume bearish candle (volume about 1.67 billion), crashing from 60,500 to 58,026, confirming panic selling.
- July 1, 01:00: A high-volume bearish candle (volume about 1.07 billion), dipping to 57,720, forming a "bear trap."
- July 1, 12:00: A high-volume bullish candle (volume about 0.86 billion), surging from 58,255 to 60,444, confirming bullish counterattack.
- July 6, 07:45: A high-volume bullish candle (volume about 0.78 billion), rallying from 63,300 to 63,702, confirming the continued unfolding of Wave C.
Last 10 15-minute K-lines: From 63,600 oscillating upward to 63,698, volume shows a pattern of moderate expansion. The market is dominated by bulls in the 63,500–63,700 range.
Volume-Price Conclusion: After the rebound volume expansion on July 6, the current moderate volume consolidation is a positive volume-price signal. Key observation points: If a breakout above 64,000–64,500 occurs with volume, Wave C extends; if a breakdown below 62,500 occurs with volume, Wave C ends.
V. Order Flow
Volume Profile: The Point of Control (POC) for the last 5 days is at 58,636. This is the densest area of trading between bulls and bears. The current price of 63,698 is about 5,062 above the POC, which is a premium area above the value zone.
Current Position Analysis: The price at 63,698 is above the POC of 58,636, outside the upper edge of the Value Area (58,250–62,584). In order flow theory, a price breaking above the upper edge of the Value Area means bulls have a clear advantage. The current price is in a strong premium area and requires sustained volume to confirm the validity of the breakout.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):
- 62,000–64,000: Current dense trading zone (July 3–6, forming a new HVN).
- 59,000–61,000: Core support HVN (dense trading zone from July 1–2).
- 57,700–58,500: Extreme support HVN (buying area during the July 1 crash).
- 64,500–66,000: Strong resistance HVN (dense trading zone from June 15–20).
Delta Analysis: Delta estimates show that during the crash on July 1 at 01:00, Delta turned sharply negative (level of -4.0 billion). During the rebound on July 1 at 12:00, Delta quickly turned positive (level of +2.5 billion). During the rally on July 6, Delta continued to turn positive (level of +3.5 billion), confirming proactive buying. Currently, the Delta MA12 is in positive territory (level of +1.5 billion), indicating buyer strength is dominant.
Order Flow Conclusion: The price has broken above the POC and the upper edge of the Value Area, in a strong premium area. The 64,000–64,500 area above is a key HVN resistance. If Delta continues positive with a volume breakout, it is likely to rally to 65,500; if Delta turns negative and the price breaks below 62,000, a pullback to 60,500 is expected.
VI. Price Action
Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Resistance: 67,410 (stage high), 67,254 (June 15 secondary high), 65,549 (June 22 high).
- Key Resistance: 64,000 (integer level), 63,702 (July 6 high), 63,500 (integer level).
- Key Support: 62,500 (July 5 consolidation lower bound), 62,000 (integer level), 61,000 (July 2 high), 59,500 (July 3 low).
Candlestick Patterns:
- July 1, 01:00: "Hammer" bottom pattern, crashing from 59,500 to 57,720 before rebounding.
- July 1, 12:00: "Bullish Engulfing" pattern, surging from 58,255 to 60,444.
- July 6, 07:45: Bullish candle with a short upper wick, rallying from 63,300 to 63,702, showing sustained bullish strength.
- July 6, 08:00: A small bearish candle with shrinking volume, pulling back from 63,702 to 63,698, indicating light selling pressure near 63,700.
Trend Structure:
- Short-term: Uptrend confirmed, with both lows and highs moving up.
- Medium-term: The downtrend line from the June 3 high of 67,410 is being tested; a breakout would reverse the medium-term trend.
Price Action Conclusion: The short term is in a strong consolidation zone after the rebound confirmation. 62,500 is the short-term bull defense line, and 64,000 is the bull-bear divide: a breakout would extend Wave C targeting 65,000–66,000; a loss would lead to a pullback to the 61,500–60,500 range.
Comprehensive Assessment
Dow Theory signals that the primary trend remains deeply downward but with significantly weakened momentum, and the short-term trend has entered an upward phase, with key levels at 64,000 (up) / 62,500 (down). Chan Theory shows an extremely strong upward stroke (+5,982), currently in a consolidation phase after extending the upward stroke. Elliott Wave Theory confirms the completion of a five-wave decline, with the ABC rebound C wave unfolding (+4,202, already exceeding the equality of Wave A), targeting 65,000–66,000. Volume-Price Analysis presents a positive combination of "crash with high volume + bottoming with shrinking volume + rebound with continuous volume expansion." Order Flow shows the POC at 58,636, price in a strong premium area, and Delta MA12 positive. Price Action shows "Hammer" + "Bullish Engulfing" bottom patterns, with short-term strength.
Short-term Strategy Suggestions:
- Bullish scenario: If the price stagnates with shrinking volume near 63,000–63,300, forms a bottom fractal, and Delta turns positive, consider going long with targets of 64,000 → 65,000, stop loss at 62,300.
- Bearish scenario: If the price rebounds to 64,000–64,500 and forms a top fractal accompanied by a high-volume decline, confirming the end of Wave C, consider shorting with targets of 62,500 → 61,500, stop loss at 65,000.
- Current state: 63,698 is in a strong consolidation zone, with short-term bulls in the lead. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 64,000 to confirm Wave C extension before chasing, or wait for a pullback to 63,000 to confirm support before considering going long.