· Rebound reason: Primarily boosted by the US-Iran ceasefire agreement and easing geopolitical risks. However, although US stocks rose, the crypto market’s follow-through rally has been limited.

🎯 Key battle levels (technical analysis)

· Current battlefield: $60,000 - $61,000. This was the previous key support level, but it has now flipped into a “high-pressure zone,” and multiple attempts to push higher have failed to hold.
· Lower defense line: A drop below $59,200** may trigger further downside; the first defense line is at **$58,035. If it breaks, price may slide toward $55,500.
· Upper room: Only a strong breakout above the $62,600-$63,700 range can truly restore market confidence.

📉 Market sentiment and capital flows (cautious)

· Capital outflow: In June, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of about $4 billion. The lack of institutional buying is one of the biggest pressures right now.
· Macroeconomic negative: The market assigns an 80% probability to a rate hike in December. A high interest rate environment is very unfriendly to Bitcoin with zero yield.
$BTC ‌