#黄金早报 |Sunday,July6---CoreData|Product|Price|FridayChange||---------|-------|---------------||XAUSpot|$4,174|+1.18%||COMEXAugustGold|$4,187.3|+1.49%||AU9999|910.3CNY/g|—||GoldT+D|910.3CNY/g|+3.11%(Weekly)||BrandJewelry|1,260-1,263CNY/g|—||GoldScrapRecycling|~895CNY/g|—||DollarIndex|100.88|-0.02%|-**WeeklyGain**:+2.15%(6/29-7/4),**endingfourconsecutiveweeklydeclines**-**WeeklyRange**:$3,943—$4,195(amplitude$252)-**ATHRetracement**:$5,598→$4,174,retracement**-25.4%**-**WeekendXAUTProxy**:$4,164(slightlybelowFriday'sclose,thinliquidity)---KeyEventsLastFriday1.**NFPShock**:Juneonly+57K(expected115K),April-Maycombineddownwardrevisionof74K.Lowestinfourmonths2.**RateHikeExpectationsCollapse**:Septemberratehikeprobability65%→53.5%,Julyonly17.6%.Marketfullypricesin25bphikeinDecember3.**DollarDives**:DXYbrokebelow101,closingat100.85,neartwo-weeklow4.**ShortCoveringSurge**:Goldpriceviolentlyralliedfrom$3,948lowto$4,195;SaxoBanksays"bearsunabletopress+crudeoilretreatasdualdrivers"5.**US-IranInterimCeasefire**:60-dayagreementineffect;newroundoftalkson7/11inPakistan;geopoliticalpremiumtemporarilyrecedes6.**China'sCentralBank**:Conducted1trillionCNY3-monthreverserepoon7/6;increasedgoldholdingsfor19consecutivemonths7.**SPDRGLD**:Holdings1,005tonnes;waitingonthesidelinesatlowlevels;earlierreductionpaceslowedbutnotreversed---###📐ResistanceandSupport||Level|Logic||---|-------|-------||**ResistanceR2**|$4,300|JPMorganQ3target,JuneFOMChawkishanchor||**ResistanceR1**|$4,195→$4,200|Fridayhigh+psychologicallevel||**Current**|**$4,174**|—||**SupportS1**|$4,100|WGCbenchmarkpivot;Saxo"onlyabovethiscanconfidenceberestored"||**SupportS2**|$4,000|Psychologicallevel+Junelowdefenseline||**SupportS3**|$3,943-3,955|Thisweek/monthabsolutelow|---###🧭Strategy**Qualitative:Oversoldbounceentersaccelerationphase,but$4,200resistanceisclear**-Friday'scloseat$4,174isjustastepawayfrom$4,200,butweekendliquidityisthin;gapriskatMonday'sopenishigh-NFPshock+Walsh'sdovishstanceopenedroomforarebound,**butthisdoesnotequalatrendreversal**—coreCPIisstillat2.9%,serviceinflationstickinessremains-Hua'anFuturesjudgment:Julymainlyconsolidates,volatilitydeclines-HSBCmaintainsoverweight,butacknowledges"short-termpressurefromrealyieldsandthedollar"**TradingIdeas:**-**Donotchasearound$4,200**;waitforMonday'sopentoconfirmifitcanhold-**Medium-termaccumulationzone**:$4,000-$4,100inbatches,correspondingtodomestic870-890CNY/g-**Stop-lossreference**:Abreakbelow$3,940(previouslow)invalidatesthebouncelogic---###⏰KeyTimelinesNextWeek|Date|Event|Impact||------|-------|--------||7/7(Mon)|ChinaJuneFXreserves;NewA-sharerulestakeeffect|Windowforcentralbankgoldbuyingpace||7/7-10|**SunValleySummit**(Cook/Bezos/Zuckerberg/Altman)|Riskappetitedisturbance||7/7-8|NATOSummit|Geopoliticalvariable||**7/9(Thu)**|**FedJuneFOMCMinutes**(Walsh'sfirstchair)|⭐⭐⭐Biggestvariablethisweek||7/9|ChinaJuneCPI/PPI|Domesticinflationpricing||7/9-10|Williams+Loganspeeches|Ratehikeexpectationcalibration||7/9|UStariffhearingson60countries|Newtradefrictionvariable||7/11|**NewroundofUS-Irantalks**(Pakistan)|Oil→inflation→goldpricetransmissionchain||TBD|**USCPIData**|Directionalvariable:Cooling→$4,300+,Overshoot→$4,000test|---###🏦QuickRoundupofInstitutionalViews|Institution|TargetPrice|Timeframe||------------|-------------|-----------||JPMorgan|Q3$4,300→Q4$4,500|2026H2||GoldmanSachs|$4,900|Year-end(bullcase$6,000+)||DeutscheBank|Q3$4,300→Q4$4,800|—||Barclays|$4,791|—||Citigroup|$4,000|Threemonths||WGCBenchmark|$4,100±5%|Withintheyear||TD|Firstbreak$3,900→reboundto$5,300+in2027|—|**Inonesentence:Thereboundhasbacking(NFP+centralbankbuying+de-dollarization),but$4,200-$4,300isthebull-beardecisivezone.NextThursday'sFOMCminutes+US-Irantalksarethegame-changersthatsetthedirection.**🪨