wild. Last bear market, we saw roughly a 78% drawdown over a 54-week period. Now we’re 38 weeks into the bear market and have so far seen a 54% decline from the top. Comparing these stats shows that, on both metrics, we’re currently at around 70% of the previous bear market. The biggest deviation from previous cycles was the last one, which bottomed at around 86%. Keeping in mind that we have both diminishing returns and diminishing drawdowns, a bottom at 70% of the previous bear market doesn’t sound so crazy anymore. Everyone who follows me knows that I think the probability of another push to the downside is high. But even if we see that, we’re extremely close to the bottom, and in my opinion, the upside heavily outweighs the downside risk. That’s why I’m currently looking for my first swing long of the upcoming bull market.

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