7.6 Golden Strategy Morning Brief: Gold Rallies Then Retreats in a Tug-of-War! 4160 Becomes Short-Term Bull-Bear Divide

Gold started its rebound from around 4106 in early Asian trading, with bulls quickly pushing it up to an intraday high of 4195. Subsequently, the upward momentum weakened, and prices gradually pulled back into high-level consolidation. After retesting support at 4160, it rebounded slightly, forming an intraday rhythm of "surge + range-bound consolidation," with increasing intensity in the long-short battle.

From a fundamental perspective, current geopolitical risk aversion continues to provide underlying support for gold prices. However, market divergence over the Fed's subsequent monetary policy path is widening, with fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields repeatedly disrupting gold's trend. Amid conflicting fundamental news, capital consensus remains weak, and gold temporarily lacks a unilateral catalyst. Short-term movements are more driven by intraday capital sentiment and data expectations.

From a technical perspective, on the 15-minute timeframe, prices have been oscillating in a range after the surge. Short-term support lies at 4160, while resistance above is at the previous high of 4195. Moving averages are flattening, and Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that the short-term consolidation pattern will persist.

Trading reference: Go long in batches in the 4130-4150 range on pullbacks, with targets at 4180, 4200, and 4250.$XAUT