Bitcoin approached $63.5k over the weekend, seemingly signaling a return of bulls, but traders warn that Monday's movements could be "very bad." This warning is not casual—historical data shows a higher probability of BTC retracement on Mondays, and the structural support for the current rebound is not solid.

ETFs have seen a record eight consecutive weeks of net outflows, institutional capital is receding; on-chain exchange deposits have surged, with some holders choosing to exit during the rebound. Meanwhile, although the funding rate has recovered from bearish to neutral, it has not formed a sustained bullish signal—market sentiment seems driven by short covering rather than new long positions.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and small buy orders can push prices higher, but after Monday's market open, the correlation between traditional markets and crypto may trigger a directional choice. If the ETF outflow trend remains unchanged and exchange deposits continue to rise, the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
Downside risk: If a sharp decline occurs on Monday with high volume, it could trigger a chain liquidation of leveraged long positions on-chain—some platforms still have high leverage levels. Whether the rebound continues depends on the reversal of ETF fund flows, not on weekend candlesticks.
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