In the early morning, a big surprise appeared.

The latest survey results are out:

Gold: 73% bullish, only 16% bearish. Oil: 52% bearish, only 20% bullish. US stocks: 59% bullish, 28% bearish. A-shares: 60% bullish, 26% bearish.

The sharp shift in market sentiment has caught people off guard.

First, the bullish consensus on gold is too strong, making it the most certain direction in people's minds. This aligns with recent market trends: after the weak non-farm payrolls, the dollar fell sharply, gold surged, and capital clearly moved back into gold. However, from a contrarian indicator perspective, caution is needed in the short term. It's not that it cannot rise, but when the bullish ratio is this high, if gold opens higher or quickly rallies on Monday, it may easily trigger profit-taking—the key is whether it can hold above $4,100. If it fails to hold, a short-term pullback could occur.

Second, the bearish view on oil is a potential contrarian risk, as people have largely accepted the judgment that "prices won't surge significantly anymore." This makes sense fundamentally, but the problem is that once the market forms a consensus that "oil prices won't rise," geopolitical risks or supply-side news can easily trigger reverse moves. The downtrend in oil may not be over, but a surprise rebound is most likely in the short term. If oil prices suddenly return above $70 next week, or even rebound to $72-$73, it will directly disrupt the market's judgment on cooling inflation.

Third, optimism on US stocks and A-shares is present but not extreme euphoria, with risk appetite clearly recovering. A weak dollar, rising US stocks, rising A-shares, and rising gold form a complete trading set. The next key confirmation point is whether this trade can continue to be supported by data (Monday's services PMI and Thursday's initial jobless claims will be exceptionally important). If US data is moderate next week and the Fed minutes are not hawkish, the market will continue along this path: gold strong, stocks strong, dollar weak, oil range-bound low. However, if inflation or Fed signals are uncooperative, this trade could reverse altogether: the dollar rebounds, US stocks and A-shares come under pressure, gold oscillates, and oil may regain attention due to inflation concerns.

This is not extreme retail frenzy, but rather the market consensus beginning to form—a weak non-farm payrolls is a signal for rate hike pauses. However, it also indirectly shows that the market has already priced in part of the best-case scenario. What really matters next week is whether the data can match this optimism.