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Previously, I summarized that the market trend is nothing more than consolidation, uptrend, and downtrend—even simpler, it's either range-bound or trending. Gradually, I came to realize that in the market, there is a huge cognitive gap between top and struggling students, or between experts and beginners (the "leeks"). If you tell someone that the market has both consolidation and big trending moves, many will say, "Why are you telling me this? I still don't know if it will go up or down tomorrow, so I can't make money." True experts know that after prolonged consolidation, a trending move will come, and after a trending move ends, consolidation will follow. Although I don't know exactly when the trending will start after consolidation, or when consolidation will return after trending, I can be certain that they will come. At worst, I might be a bit late to notice, which just means entering on the right side. Then I can trade back and forth in this alternation: during consolidation, I use consolidation strategies to make small gains or take small losses; when a trending move comes, I must go heavy and go all-in to make big profits, not losses. Thus, my strategy and position sizing are clear. Combined with the ability to identify these two situations, trading becomes easy.
Trading is all about looking inward. There's no need to care about what others say or do. I think I just need to do my best.
Does trading require talent? I don't think it's necessary to focus too much on talent. I prefer the saying: "Smart people are nothing special; what's impressive is smart people who are willing to put in hard work." When I first started learning indicators, I felt I couldn't see through them—how could others buy and sell at the right points and recognize accumulation and distribution? Now I can too—all through hard work and practice.
As for trading, the hardest part is overcoming your own greed, because opportunities arise every moment in the market. A few days ago, I saw LAB about to launch and entered around 6, took a 10% profit and exited. I left in the morning, and that night it went to 18—doubled! I left with a 10% gain. I was using futures, and a double would have been life-changing, but I still left. That's my trading system: I don't care about making a killing on a single coin; I care about stable and continuous profits. If I had been greedy, I would have made the money too, but next time I might still take the trade, and my greed might cause me to lose money—then I'd be unwilling to cut losses, hold onto a losing position, get liquidated, and lose everything.
Several times, I went heavy on short futures and got stopped out by a wick, only to see the market dump 10,000 points afterward. Did it hurt? Of course it hurt, but I would think: Was there a problem with my strategy? No. Did I execute it properly? Yes. That's what a trading system means—you must execute it without regret. If the market had reversed, I would have lost much more. When your position size is heavy, your risk management mindset must be absolutely sharp.
The market changes direction hundreds of times a day, and there's money to be made everywhere. But I can only capture about 5% or even 1% of the moves, and I can't even guarantee I'll be right on all of them. As long as I catch some and get most of my trades right, I'm satisfied. What others do and how much they make has nothing to do with me. I can't make all the money anyway—money can't be fully earned, but it can all be lost.
A lot of trading comes down to waiting—that's part of the trading system. You wait for the signal; if there's no signal, you keep waiting. Many profits are not made through action but through waiting. Waiting and keeping your heart in check are the hardest things.
A good trading system is extremely simple. It essentially solves three problems: entry, exit, and stop-loss—plus the dimension of price and time. If a system is too complex, it's not a good system; the more complex it is, the harder it is to operate and the easier it is to make mistakes. The other day in the hospital, I kept using LAB to practice building muscle memory: the logic for opening a trade, closing a trade, setting a stop-loss. I practiced repeatedly on the 1-minute chart. In higher time frames, I can react perfectly to big Bitcoin futures moves, but I feel that's not enough. I want to be able to react quickly on the 1-minute level before I'm satisfied with myself. Analyzing the market for hours can be comprehensive—various theories, lines, confirmations, etc. But I want to turn all of that into muscle memory: one look at the chart, and entry, exit, and stop-loss are determined, then my hand moves, and I execute fully. Since it's practice, I didn't use big capital—I'd lose 10u per trade, repeating over and over until I got tired. I calculated that I lost about 200+ oil (USDT), which I consider tuition. For me, the capital size is irrelevant; I care about win rate and percentages. Small capital and big capital are the same in my eyes.
The biggest pitfall in trading is path dependence. What is path dependence? For example, if you're comfortable trading range-bound by buying low and selling high, you'll keep wanting to do that. When a trending move comes, even if you recognize the risk, you can't resist it. Or you might directly copy someone else's successful system, thinking you can do it too. Everyone's capital size, level of understanding, technical ability, values, and historical conditions are different—you can't just copy. That's why BTB Research provides customized training methods and content for each student. Trying to have others make money for you is also a form of path dependence; what others can do, you may not.
I think the biggest change trading has brought me is a shift in my thinking logic: "Out of three thousand weak waters, take only one scoop"—I start thinking philosophically and become more broad-minded. It's hard for someone like me to find a partner, mainly because of trading. I know how to cut losses—it's okay to be a little in the red, but not deep in the red (in the A-share market, red means down).