Wu's weekly macro indicators and analysis: Fed meeting minutes, SpaceX inclusion in index

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Compiled by: GaryMa Wu Blockchain

Summary

Last week, the situation between the US and Iran shifted toward ceasefire negotiations, and falling oil prices eased inflation pressure. US job growth slowed, but the unemployment rate declined, indicating a cooling labor market while still showing resilience. This week, key focus includes the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 Index.

Last Week Review

Over the past week, the US-Iran conflict shifted from direct exchanges to a “ceasefire–negotiation–maritime standoff.” Qatar said there had been progress in the indirect technical talks between the US and Iran in Doha, but Iran warned the US not to get involved in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran also moved to strengthen its control over the strait; IRGC warnings forced some vessels to turn back, and the UK and France plan to send mine-clearing forces to support the southern front. Oil prices fell back to pre-war levels, weakening Iran’s pressure leverage.

US June ADP employment rose by 98,000, the lowest increase since March; it was expected to be 118,000, versus a previous figure of 122,000.

The US June unemployment rate was 4.2%, the lowest level since June 2025; it was expected to be 4.30%, with the previous reading at 4.30%.

In US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, employment increased by 57,000; it was expected to be 110,000, and the prior figure was revised from 172,000 to 129,000.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27 were 215,000; it was expected to be 220,000, and the prior figure was revised from 215,000 to 216,000.

Key Events & Indicators This Week

July 7

SpaceX to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index

OpenAI plans to release GPT-5.6

July 9

The Federal Reserve releases the monetary policy meeting minutes (02:00)

China June CPI (year-on-year) (09:30)

The ECB releases the June monetary policy meeting minutes (19:30)

US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4 (in tens of thousands) (20:30)

NAS100-0.04%
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FiveMinutesBeforeLiquidation
· 7h ago
Fed minutes + US CPI, a pile of macroeconomic data next week, the crypto market is estimated to be on a roller coaster again.
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GateUser-f4ae43e9
· 8h ago
Over there in Hormuz, minesweepers are about to go in, yet oil prices are still holding steady. Is the market really calm or just pretending to sleep?
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GlassDomeUniverse
· 8h ago
The unemployment rate of 4.2% looks okay, but the gap between ADP and non-farm payrolls is so large—the data are conflicting.
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L2ArbitrageTrader
· 8h ago
GPT-5.6 is coming next week. OpenAI's iteration speed is faster than my phone upgrades, and my wallet can't keep up.
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ApyDaydreamer
· 8h ago
SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100—does this count as official recognition for Musk?
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