London Gold, at the open, let me first set the tone. Tomorrow, London Gold will follow a script of a gap-down open, then a pullback confirmation followed by an upward oscillation, fully in line with our weekend scenario projection. Let's break down the underlying logic and market signals.

First, why the gap-down open.

The core trigger is the weekend easing signals from US-Iran negotiations. Both parties completed a new round of indirect consultations through Qatari mediators, clearly stating they will continue talks after the conclusion of Iran's internal affairs. No new escalation of conflict occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risk sentiment in the Middle East has temporarily receded. On top of that, Friday's single-day gold price rally accumulated a lot of profit-taking positions, which were cashed out at the open, directly pulling down the opening price and partially unwinding the earlier risk premium.

But why didn't it fall deeply, and instead turned around to oscillate upward?

Because the core logic behind this rebound—the Non-Farm Payrolls surprise miss and cooling rate hike expectations—has not been shaken at all.

The US June Non-Farm Payrolls employment increase significantly missed market expectations, directly and substantially reducing the probability of a Fed rate hike in September. The US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields both weakened, and the holding cost of gold continued to decline. This is the underlying logic supporting gold prices. Geopolitical risk sentiment is just a short-term positive/negative factor; the easing of tightening expectations is the main narrative. So after the gap-down, market buying at lower levels was very decisive, and after the pullback, it was quickly bought back.

Now let's combine it with technical analysis on the chart.

On the daily timeframe, gold prices rebounded from the stage low of 3940 and are currently at 4174, firmly above the Bollinger Band middle line at 4147, confirming short-term support.

Looking at indicators, the RSI has recovered to around 64, in a healthy upward range without being overbought. The MACD green bars continue to narrow, with bearish momentum steadily weakening. The KDJ three lines have turned upward and diverged, indicating a well-maintained short-term rebound structure. The first resistance above is the EMA30 moving average at 4213, which is near the 4200 integer level.

Entry point: wait for gold price to pull back to the 4140-4150 area, which is the daily Bollinger Band middle support and the core high-volume area of this rebound, offering higher safety.

Stop loss: uniformly set below 4120. A break below indicates the short-term rebound structure has been damaged, exit in time to avoid risk.

Upside target: 4200-4260

Friendly reminder: Volatility during weekend gap moves tends to be larger than usual. Do not take on too heavy a position. In terms of fundamentals, keep a close eye on sudden news from US-Iran negotiations in the short term. The core variable this week is still the US CPI data, which will directly determine whether this rebound can open up further upside space.