2026.7.6 Trend Prediction and Order Opening Strategy (For personal study and review only)

Blocking my posts, huh? What a petty move.

7.6 Market Analysis,

High probability (60%): Breaking upward to start a new wave. Extreme low volume consolidation over the weekend. After the US stock market opens early in the week, first a quick downward spike breaks support to sweep low long stops, then quickly pulls back, stabilizes, and moves up. Volume increases as it attacks 628, and then breaks the previous high of 630-634. The MACD red bars are noticeably expanding. Ultimate target: 639.

Medium probability (30%): Fake breakdown + deep shakeout + recovery. The market maker intentionally plunges downward through 622, even hitting 620 to create panic, sweeping most long stops, then quickly pulls back and starts the main upward wave.

Low probability (10%): Effective breakdown of support, trend turns weak. A real body candle with volume breaks through 618 and fails to recover, indicating the mid-term rebound is over and the market begins to search for a lower bottom.

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Buy on pullback (Main strategy) BTC: Pullback to 624-621, stop loss 618, first take profit 629-630, second take profit 633-635, final take profit 639. ETH: 1752-1757, stop loss 1730, first take profit 1772-1780, second take profit 1810, third take profit 1830.

Short on resistance (6:00 open pump fakeout, small position) BTC: 631-632 (Entry condition must be met: volume surge after 6:00, consecutive 5-minute lower highs, RSI overbought and rolling over) stop loss 635, take profit 622-624. ETH: 1780-1786 (Entry condition must be met: volume surge after 6:00, consecutive 5-minute lower highs, RSI overbought and rolling over) stop loss 1798, take profit 1756-1745.

Breakdown risk control short: BTC: 1-hour real body breaks below 620 life line, bounce to 622 to short, stop loss 626, take profit 615. ETH: 1-hour real body breaks below 1730 life line, bounce to 1742 to short, stop loss 1770, take profit 1700.

Key focus: First 15-minute candle at 6:00 open to determine direction. Bullish signal: First 15-minute candle at 6:00 closes as a real bullish body, closing above MA20, with increased volume. The day is mainly bullish; prioritize pullback longs. Neutral signal: 15-minute candle at 6:00 is a doji with long upper and lower shadows, average volume. The day is wide-range chopping; prioritize high-low range scalping, avoid holding long-term positions. Bearish signal: 15-minute candle at 6:00 breaks below MA20 with a real bearish body, volume increasing downward. The day is bearish; try shorts cautiously.