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Ming-Chi Kuo: either a foldable iPhone, or a repeat of the iPhone X script—launch later, and supply stays tight until the end of the year.
BlockBeats News, July 5 - TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the foldable iPhone may follow the same script as the iPhone X, meaning it will be launched alongside other models but with later pre-order and official release dates, and tight supply could last until the end of 2026.
Looking at the shipment volume for the third quarter of 2026, the foldable iPhone is likely similar to the 2017 iPhone X. Back then, the iPhone X was launched alongside the iPhone 8/8 Plus on September 12, but due to insufficient stock, its pre-order and official release dates were pushed to October 27 and November 3, respectively. Given the limited third-quarter shipments, the foldable iPhone may also only open for pre-order and official release in the fourth quarter of 2026.
After communicating with telecom operators, sales channels, and resellers/purchasing agents, Kuo concluded that even if the foldable iPhone is priced as high as approximately $2,300 to $2,500, demand could remain strong at least until the end of 2026. This means that once pre-orders open, the foldable iPhone could sell out quickly, with delivery wait times potentially stretching to 4-6 weeks or even longer, lasting through December. He believes that the foldable iPhone's initially scarce supply, high design recognition, and innovative user experience could drive up short-term resale prices, and it wouldn't be impossible for resale prices to exceed official prices by 50% to 100%.